|||I found your blog on as seen on tv treadmill while searching the web and wanted to tell you it is great. Feel free to have your participants view as seen on tv treadmill for more great ideas.Considering Sheffield's antics, people are quick to forgive him. After an entire spring of calling Dodger fans morons, we forgave him by the fifth inning of opening day. After admitting that he booted a few balls intentionally so the Brewers would trade him, people forgave him. Why? Barry Bonds may be a cheater and a jerkhole, but at least his cheating helps his team win. How come Barry is villified, yet Sheffield recieves far less negative press than he should?
Oh well, I'll still hate him, despite the fact that he incriminated Barry.|||112016685887129311|||Sheffield Acting Like A Jackass? Gasp!
What particularly caught my eye was this piece in the L.A. Times today. Jim Tracy tells Antonio Perez specifically not to bunt. This is a huge step in the right direction. While calling this site journalism is taking the definition of the word to the extreme, were of the same mind set of Bill Plaschke, I would be screaming about how this is proof small ball doesn't work, and that we should never bunt with anyone but the pitcher again. Not that it does work, or that we should ever bunt with anyone besides the pitcher again, but, that's beside the point.
Can you imagine Plaschke's column had this occurred the other way around? Can you imagine the field day Plaschke would have if Jim Tracy has specifically told Perez to bunt and he advanced the runners?
Antonio Perez didn't come up to bat with the team in mind.
He didn't understand Dodger baseball, coming up through the Tampa Bay organization, and taking away Jason Romano's heart in return.
He didn't understand the consequences of hitting into a double play.
He swings, strike one.
Suddenly, a voice came which truly bleeds Dodger blue.
It told him to bunt, and bunt he did.
A bunt which lead to J.D. Drew's sacrifice fly.
A run which would have never occurred if he would have hit into a double play.
The scroll wheel on Paul DePodesta's iPod would have told him to swing.
The Dodgers may have lost in the 11th, but it was the bunt that got him there.
It was the bunt earned Antonio Perez his place on the Dodgers.
And so on. I wish I were better at imitating Plaschke, it would be a fun party trick.|||112016393792986013|||I Wish I Lacked Journalistic Integrity
Hit a triple, sure. Follow it up with a little crappy chopper that only gets through because the infield was in. Small ball, baby. Squirt a ground ball through the infield, steal a base, immediately invalidate the stolen base with a walk, then score on a little flare to left. Why the hell not?
Of course, when your team is in a tail spin, and missing its two best hitters, it's always a good idea to take your best hitter out of the lineup. I hope I never have to see Werth play center again, but I doubt my wish will come true.
At least Werth's power is looking like it's coming back. If he can prove to be a productive 2nd or 6th hitter, the season might not actually be over, assuming Drew or Bradley comes back sometime in the very near future. I'm still kind of upset that I didn't include an injury contigency in my "Werth will hit 30 home runs" bet.
I hope I never see Olmedo hitting third against a right handed pitcher again, no matter how sexy he may feel.
Dodger Thoughts shows how unlucky we have been this month.
On a final, tangentely related to the Dodgers note.
Be careful what you wish for, because it might come true. Someone on Athletics Nation wishes that they'd get rid of stat guy Macha and replace him with a traditionalist like Oakland third base coach, Ron Washington. We've seen how well it works when the GM and the manager don't agree on how to run the team.|||111989861661252118|||I Really Hate The Angels Part 2
However, WHY IN THE BLOODY HELL IS ERICKSON ON THIS TEAM? You want a washed up journeyman, fine, try Pat Mahomes. It's obvious that Erickson has absolutely no use to the franchise, and to keep him here effectively creates a blank on the roster.
I hope I never have to do that again.|||111967246243754115|||The First, And Hopefully Last, Time I Will Say This
Send all complaints to sports@latimes.com cc bill.plaschke@latimes.com|||111963632637161610|||J.D. Drew Is In Plaschke's Doghouse
|||Andrew, could you post a copy of your letter? I had an email exchange with Plaschke during spring training, more or less questioning why he was so PRE-disposed to doubt everything DePo and McCourt did. I pointed out that every move they made had worked out well, that I thought Kent's offense would far outweigh his defensive problems (and also that he wasn't a bad defender anyways), that Penny and Choi would be more valuable this year than LoDuca, Encarnacion, and Mota, etc. He was pretty reasonable, but didn't seem to think through my points. I mentioned Billy Beane's record in Oakland with Depo, and he was quick to say the Oakland hadn't won a playoff series. I countered the obvious point, that they had been serious contenders for 5 years with a payroll about 1/3 the size that the Dodgers had. More that that, I wondered if he was nostalgic for the days of Kevin Malone and Fox. Seriously, why not be excited for the regime change, right? It was a civil discourse, but he didn't seem too willing to think outside his own box. |||Yes! No sentences, clauses setparated by ellipses.So, I decided to go right to the source, the master of "smartball" himself, Ozzie Guillen. I had a simple question: exactly how many runs have the White Sox scored due to small ball? Specifically, the two elements of smartball that are the stupidest: the practice of wasting outs. In this case, I will be looking at two parameters: steals, and sacrifice bunts. Exactly how many runs have the White Sox scored because of these two plays?
The rules for creating a run are this: if a run is scored following a small ball play, that wouldn't have scored otherwise, small ball gets credit. While wouldn't have scored otherwise is pretty subjective, I used the following rules, with two out, a runner advances an extra base (if someone hits a single, the runner advances two bases), with one out, the runner advances the standard number of bases.
For example, if someone hits a single, then steals second, and the batter hits a home run, small ball does not get credit, he would have scored anyway. If someone hits a single, steals second, gets driven in with a single, then the next batter grounds out, it counts for small ball.
I realize that this is a somewhat flawed analysis. It does not include outs avoided by running out of the double play. However, this is somewhat balanced out by the outs you give up with sacrifice bunting and getting got stealing. It also assumes batters will advance the same amount of bases no matter what the situation. I make no claims to the scientific value of this.
The Joe Morgans of the world would lead you to believe that the White Sox score 2-3 runs a game from their philosophy of giving up outs to advance runners. For all of Ozzie Guillen's machinations, how many runs have they actually scored this season because of them?
15
That's right, out of the 344 runs the White Sox have scored this year, 15 have been due to Ozzie Guillens machinations. Eight runs have been due to sacrifice bunt, seven are due to steals. This is in contrast to the 56 outs the White Sox have thrown away due to sacrifices and getting caught stealing. This does not include botched bunt attempts, which I failed to note.
Of course, four of these 15 runs have come against the Dodgers. Two of them in front of Joe Morgan.
Small ball runs/game in front of Joe Morgan: 2
Small ball runs/game against Dodgers: 1.33
Small ball runs/game in all other situations: .159
The question is is 15 runs at the expense of 56 outs worth it. To answer the question I again turn to Nichols's Expected Runs Table. Which I am using again because it gives the total number of times the situation occurred, rather than just the expected runs. With this, I found the expected amount of runs you lose per out: .2713. Using this, the White Sox have cost themselves 15.1918 runs with small ball. While this does not include failed bunts, it most likely balances out with some of the positive elements of small ball I did not include.
Again, this simply proves the point I have been driving home all year: small ball, at best does nothing. In this case, it has slightly hurt the White Sox. So, when I say Ozzie Guillen is a moron, I can now prove it.|||111957757346437630|||Ozzie Guillen: Master Strategist
The bench today, against righty Brian Lawrence consisted of the following:
Left handed Hee Seop Choi
Left handed Oscar Robles
Left handed Jason Grabowski
Left handed J.D. Drew
Right handed Antonio Perez.
Now, I'm not actively endorsing giving Grabowski more playing time but, if I had a choice between him and Repko against a righty, defense not withstanding, I'm going with Grabowski. Of course, the only righty on the bench happens to be the one who hits .340. That'll learn him to get those bunts down.
Down by three runs in the eighth with runners on first and second, Tracy decides to play for one run by having Izturis bunt. This had the same results as all of our bunts. Fortunately, Kent and Saenz managed to bail him out.
In the ninth, Tracy decided to put Hee Seop in a position to succeed by having him face the lefty Chris Hammond. This was with Antonio Perez still avialable. Makes sense to me.
Of course, then the tenth happened. Izturis got the grittiest double you'd ever see, and that was followed up by a successful(!) sacrifice by Mike Edwards. After a Werth walk, Kent hit a sacrifice fly to drive him in. We all know what this means. We won because of small ball, Tracy's a genius, saved DePo from his idiocy, etc. Jim Tracy seemed to actually be slightly sliding in the eyes of the mainstream, who at least mentioned the idea he might be fired. Now, he'll be elevated to sainthood. Lovely.
So yes, good thing the Dodgers won, even though it was purely in spite of Jim Tracy.|||111957323490742680|||We Can't Fire Tracy Now
*Ron Gardenhire is not actually justified.
|||111950763324236534|||Ron Gardenhire Is Justified*
On the SCSR, they interviewed Jeff Kent about his little tirade that got him thrown out of the game. Apparently, the umpire's justification for blowing that call was that he "anticipated and heard the play", Kent then made, in his words, "a gesture", suggesting the umpire's eyesight was flawed. The umpire apparently didn't take too kindly to this, and removed him from the game.
Granted, this isn't exactly an unbiased report, but if the umpire actually did make that call based on what he thought would happen, then it's just another sign of a lack of accountability for umpires that needs to be stopped. A game like this one can't simply be decided based on someone's assumptions, and there needs to be some kind of way to document cases like this.|||111950727461153517|||6. I Want Job Security (Like An MLB Umpire)
Then we kept losing, so I just decided to maintain radio silence. After all, if you don't have anything to say, don't say anything at all. That was my mantra when I created this blog, and I'm sticking to it.
So, what did it take to break me out of this? Is it some sort of superstition thing? Maybe. The first time I stop posting, Izturis goes into a massive shame spiral. The second time, this happened. The real answer, however, is Lee "Hacksaw" Hamilton.
It was a merely inncocous comment, saying that Tracy didn't cause these injuries or trade for these players. The he didn't cause these injuries remark I agree with, but to place the blame on Paul DePodesta for the team's misfortunes is just ludicrous.
I've gone through this before, but, it seems like I have to make this point again. This is the team we would have if Dodger fan had his way, and/or Dan Evans was still GM.
LF Dave Roberts (.288/.356/.461 13 Steals)
C Paul LoDuca (.291/.347/.385, has managed to remain surprisingly consistent for the last three weeks)
CF Steve Finley (.225/.287/.408)
3B Adrian Beltre (.254/.295/.371 5 home runs)
1B Shawn Green (.272/.333/.451 .609 OPS with RISP)
RF Juan Encarnacion (.266/.345/.459 Has twice as many walks as Beltre)
SS Cesar Izturis
2B Alex Cora (.221/.264/.298 The glove makes up for it, right?)
Rotation:
Odalis Perez
Jeff Weaver
Kaz Ishii (5.40 ERA 26 BB 34 K)
Some Scrub
Scrub Number Two
You can forget about a big free agent, because all of our money would be tied up. Also, Dan Evans was unable to ever make a big move, with Hideo Nomo being his big signing, and Wilson Alvarez his second. Consequently, I can't see guys like Kent or Lowe coming over this season, especially since we just spent 80 million dollars on Beltre and Finley. Oops. Oh yeah, that Milton Bradley character you all seem to love so much, he wouldn't be here either, since if Dan Evans refused to trade Franklin Gutierrez for Richie Sexson, he sure as hell isn't going to give him up for Milton Bradley. If you were wondering what became of the man who was more valuable than Richie Sexson, he's currently hitting .232/.308/.362 for Cleveland's AA team.
As pathethic as this team has been, part of it has been bad luck. When our pitching is on, our hitting sucks. We just allowed three runs between Penny and Lowe, and lost both games. Good Weaver's starts are going to waste. When we were hitting, the pitching was crap.
Yes, the team has sucked recently, but to blame anything on DePo is ridiculous.
Oh yeah, Jim Tracy sucks, bunting with Antonio Perez again, we win despite his idiocy, blah blah blah. And I'm sad Duaner cut his hair.|||111950552445927570|||This Is Not DePo's Fault
Post game, Scioscia says pine tar is against the rules, but said it is "used around baseball," doesn't alter the flight of the ball and usually isn't an issue. Apparently, Scioscia is not well versed in physics, which might explain why he got radiation poisoning when he was working at a nuclear power plant.
Mike, here's a physics lesson. Curve balls move because of something called the Magnus Force. Magnus force is generated when spin is applied to a ball. When a weight is applied to a part of the ball, putting it off balance, more spin can be generated. Pine tar, despite what you may believe, does have a property we like to call "weight". Therefore, pine tar does actually effect the flight of the ball. QED.
If you ask Angel Nation, however, Frank Robinson is a villain. I don't get it. Donnelly is a cheater, bar none. Scioscia got in Robinson's face after calling him on it, and then Robinson said he lost a lot of respect for Scoscia. All Frank Robinson did here was what any manager would do. He saw an opposing player violating the rules, and he called him on it. What am I missing here?
T.J. Simers said on the Loose Cannons (which I was only listening to because DePo was coming on) that everyone in baseball does it. This is an incredibly flawed position, however, as Scioscia, mature as he is, had Nationals pitcher Gary Majewski inspected prior to starting the next inning. Surprisingly, there was no pine tar. This would tend to disrupt the position that "everyone" does it.
I understand defending your team if you are a fan. However, if a Dodger got caught blatantly cheating, I'd never let him live it down. Wilton Guerro was known as "corky" until his last days as a Dodger. Donnelly's a cheater, and the position that this is all Frank Robinson's fault is just ridiculous.
|||111886405493754101|||Angels Fans Like Cheating
|||What's with the link to the state dept. in the first line? And there's no apostrophe in Angels Fans. |||Listening to the Cannons is painful no matter who they are interviewing... |||What are you missing? An "i" in "Scioscia," for starters.
Andrew|||This would be why you don't write an entry while simulatenously writing a paper about democratizing Burma. |||I like how everyone nit-picks your grammar and spellig. It saves me from doing it.^.^
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The form ate my "n". Swear.
BostonSportPage.Com|||Hey, great site, Andrew, just came across it while I was looking for background on Dionner Navarro's trade to the DBacks to the Dodgers and how the Yankees 2005 free fall warms the cockuls of my Red Sox loving heart. Sorry we foisted d-lowe on you this year. I bought the hype and thought he'd pitch well in Chavez Ravine with less pressure and more open space. Love the humor and analysis (especially the Chuck LaMar trade analysis) on the site. Keep up the great work!Sincerely,
Your Friends at DFP.
|||111880597192480652|||Dear Jim Tracy
secondhandsmog|||use this matrix. it's 1999 to 2002. Andrew|||Thanks, I realize that mine is slightly out of date, but I like that it covers a ten year span, even if it is not as current. It also features more stats than just the expected runs.A more recent source can certainly contribute though.
secondhandsmog|||the historical run environment factors into the probability of runs scored, so using 84 - 94 is probably less accurate than 99 - 02. as you note, there are some sample size issues with using a 4 year aggregate, esp regards to situations that rarely happen. ie 3rd and 2nd with 0 outs. BTW, try studes' win expectancy spreadsheet. he gave me a heads up about it a month or so ago. it saves you the trouble of calculating run expectancy for situations then converting it to "win probability", or win expectancy, as i prefer to call it.
ftp.baseballgraphs.com/wpa
"use it to easily analyze many situations just like you did here. The WPA spreadsheet adjusts for run-scoring environment, though not for the quality of the next hitters in the lineup." -studes commenting over at my blog.
I, for one, am honored.
|||111878345576111312|||DFP Now On SportsBlogs.org
Each one of these trades will be rated on the offical DFP bonehead scale, where a one is a decent trade, three is even, and a ten is a potentially franchise ruining one.
1997:
Bobby Abreu for Kevin Stocker - 10. What a way to start your carrer.
Brian Boehringer and Andy Sheets For John Flaherty - 3. Boehringer was a relatively successful relief pitcher for several years, and Flaherty went on to be the Devil Rays back up catcher.
1998:
None
1999:
Jason Johnson for Danny Clyburn and Angel Volquez - 8. Johnson has been a decent three starter his carrer. Clybrun and Volquez never did anything of note.
Rolando Arrojo and Aaron Ledesma for Vinny Castilla - 5. Castilla hit about .217 for the Devil Rays. Arrojo had an inauspicious middle relief carrer, and Ledesma never really did anything.
2000:
Mark Guthrie and Steve Trachsel for Brent Abernathy - 8. Decent reliever and third starter for two years of a second baseman with a .600 OPS
Marc Valdez for Russ Johnson - 3. Replacement level pitcher for replacement level hitter.
Tony Graffanino for Tanyon Sturtze - 1. Sadly, this is probably the third best trade the Devil Rays have ever made.
Jim Mecir and Todd Belitz for Jesus Colome - 6. Mecir served as an integral part of Oakland's bullpen. Colome had one okay season.
Bubba Trammel and Rick White for Jason Tyner and Paul Wilson - 1. Second best trade LaMar ever made. Of course, this was Steve Phillips that got fleeced, and, we're grading on a curve. Jason Tyner got a bobble head while on Tampa Bay. He was also on my fantasy team for a couple weeks when I desperately needed steals.
2001:
Roberto Hernandez and Cory Lidle for Ben Greive - 9. Another case of trading two solid pitchers for nothing. As an aside, Oakland came out amazingly ahead in this trade, getting Cory Lidle, Johnny Damon, and Mark Ellis for Angel Berroa and Ben Greive.
Albie Lopez and Mike DiFelice for Jason Conti and Nick Beiderbot - 3. Replacement level for replacement level.
Fred McGriff for Manny Aybar and Jason Smith - 6. Traded what was left of McGriff's usefulness for nothing.
Mickey Callaway for Wilmy Carcares - 3. Nothing for nothing.
2002:
Nothing
2003:
Jason Conti for Javier Valentin - 3. Again, nothing for nothing.
Joe Kennedy for Mark Hendrickson - 7. Kennedy became only the second starter to ever post a sub four ERA for Colorado. Hendrickson is a middling member of the Devil Ray's rotation.
2004:
Antonio Perez for Jason Romano - 9. Thanks, Chuck.
Bartolome Fortunato and Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir and Jose Diaz - -5. Notice that Chuck is only able to take good players away from the Mets. So good it actually makes up for some of these abominations.
Chad Gaudin for Kevin Cash - 3. Yet another nothing for nothing trade.
Some stats
ABR (Average Bonehead Rating) - 4.61
Trades where LaMar comes out ahead - 3
Trades where LaMar breaks even - 6
Trades where LaMar ends up behind - 9
GM Hall of Shame (GM's that got fleeced by Chuck LaMar)
Kenny Williams
Steve Phillips
Jim Duquette
This doesn't seem that bad, until you consider that a break even GM would be a three. Also, the Abreu for Stocker trade should probably be about a 25, as everything else is just a four or five in comparison. If I hadn't of cheated and given him a -5 on the Kazmir trade, he jumps up to an ABR of 4.94.
LaMar is batting .250 in trades, he signs washed up players seemingly just to block young player's development, and I'm pretty sure the only two big contracts he has signed were Greg Vaughn's and Ben Greive's. Looking good. Somehow through all this, he's still managed to be the only GM the Devil Rays have ever had.
So, is Chuck LaMar the worst GM ever? Without concrete data comparing all of them, it's hard to say, but he's got to be in the last one to three percentile. Maybe he has the same agent that John Kruk does.|||111878140925218388|||Chuck LaMar, Worst GM Ever?
|||It sounds as if what you are really doing is preparing the introduction for the first winner of the Cam Bonifay Commendation for Clam-Headed Management.2004:
AVG: .282
HR: 88
RBI: 285
2005:
AVG: .230
HR: 28
RBI: 97
Wow, one would say, Atlanta's outfield is three times worse this year then it was last year. The people who enjoy John Kruk's writing stop there, and absorb this sagely wisdom. The smart person says "wait a second, Andruw Jones already has 16 home runs, so that can't be the projected numbers for the entire season. Kruk can't be that stupid though, maybe that was last years outfield at this point in the season. No, that wouldn't make sense either, since it means that the outfielders would average 80 home runs a piece. This means John Kruk just compared stats a third of the way through the season against stats compiled in an entire year."
At this point, my brain explodes, leaving a horrible mess for me to clean up in the morning.
Let's look at a more accurate table, shall we:
2004:
AVG: .282
HR: 88
RBI: 285
2005 (projected)
AVG: .230
HR: 84
RBI: 291
Gee, that looks a lot closer now doesn't it? Almost like the power statistics between this year and last year are exactly the same. We wouldn't want something like facts to get in the way now would we, as that would run counter to the exact point we are trying to make.
The best part about this is when you realize that this is what John Kruk is paid to do. While you and I have to do things at our jobs like say, not make things up, Kruky apparently isn't held to such a high standard.
|||111874157279896208|||John Kruk Is Bad At Math
|||Kruk may be able to get a job with the Bush administration if things don't work out with ESPN. |||Hi thereI don't usually post to blogs, but I'll make an exception here, since you're addressing something I wrote.
Your primary point is a good one- the graphic needs more context- I should have stated the HR and RBI stats on a per-game basis. That would have made the point more clear.
One thing to note though- the 2005 stats are based on 63 games and not 1/3 of the season, as you seem to believe. That changes your 2005 projected #s significantly- to 72 HR and 249 RBI-, which does indeed show a decline from 2004.
-Mark Simon
"Baseball Tonight" researcher
PS- Next time you refer to something from the BBTN page, e-mail me. I always like to read that stuff, whether it be positive or negative. Thanks!
Andrew|||Wow, a post by someone associated vby a famous show, I'm honored (not sarcasm).My projected stasts are off yes, since I am as bad at math as John Kruk is. I just looked at the 63 games and divided incorretly.
Now, they DFA the person who, in May, had the highest average in baseball, Alex Sanchez. This, of course, comes immediately after Lou Pinella says that management has no desire to win. Way to drive that point home. No, we're committed to winning, but we're going to get rid of the person who has been the best player on the team this season. Bear in mind this roster still contains the bad Alex Gonzalez, Eduardo Perez, and someone named Reggie Taylor.
I realize no one, including myself, thought signing Alex Sanchez was a good idea. He was simply an older version of Joey Gathright who didn't try as hard. For once, however, one of Tampa Bay's lame brained moves actually managed to pay off. Of course, the logical thing to do here is cut ties with him, and eat his salary. Can you imagine what they would have done if he sucked? Did it possibly occur to him that even though this is Alex Sanchez, a guy with a .346 average probably has some market value? I doubt it.
This all comes after Chuck LaMar had the gall to say that the draft system is unfair. Here's an idea Chuck. Maybe if you didn't simply throw away money, you might one day have a competitive team. I know it's tough when you have a crappy owner, so that makes it doubly important you don't throw away five percent of your budget by signing guys, then changing your mind two months later. Of course, you can also not spend 3.6 million on Josh Hamilton, who was last seen in the back of a Cary, North Carolina police car. Chuck LaMar might have somehow found a way to be a worse GM than Kevin Malone. Maybe this explains it all.
Of course, what do you expect out of a man who, for his first trade, dealt Bobby Abreu for Kevin Stocker? Somehow, more than this.|||111870308848159288|||The Devil Rays Get Even More Stupid
As an aside, Brad Radke is not a very smart pitcher. The three balls that Choi hit out were all in the exact same place, at the same velocity. I think someone at Batgirl put it best:
"Is it me, or is Hee Seop Choi working on his Pedro Cerrano impression today, and Radke's playing right into it...Straight ball I hit very far...verrry far.'"
The platoon of Olmedo Saenz and Hee Seop Choi is now the fifth best first baseman in baseball. For comparison (number on the left is their rank in OPS):
1. Derrek Lee: 17 HR, 53 RBI, .378/.463/.693 1.148 OPS
2. Carlos Delgado: 13 HR, 45 RBI, .326/.421/.600 1.021 OPS
3. Albert Pujols: 15 HR, 49 RBI, .338/.412/.585 .997 OPS
4. Nick Johnson: 8 HR, 35 RBI .335/.451/.541 .992 OPS
5. Choi/Saenz: 18 HR, 47 RBI, .296/.366/.579 .945 OPS
6. Mark Teixeira: 16 HR, 48 RBI, .290/.349/.549 .898 OPS
9. Richie Sexson: 14 HR, 49 RBI, .244/.353/.507 .860 OPS
17. Todd Helton: 5 HR, 25 RBI, .255/.383/.396 .779 OPS
22. Phil Nevin: 9 HR, 45 RBI, .266/.304/.433 .738 OPS
In these stats, I only included the time Choi and Saenz spent at first base. Looking like all those "we should trade for Helton" shouts were pretty ridiculous.
Feeling confident after our win, I even dared to turn on Dodger Talk. After all, there was no way the requisite idiot that thought we should have kept Lo Duca will call up today. That was a mistake. First caller calls up, and proclaims DePo a genius, pointing out how, pretty much without exception, everyone we got rid of has been absolute trash. Wow. I'm completely pumped up now. Next caller, I am not making this up, says "You can't judge trades based on how the players perform afterwards."
I'm stunned by this, so, I eagerly await how you judge a trade. "You have to look at the holes we left. After he made that trade, we had a huge hole at catcher." Fair enough, even though Brent Mayne had a better September than Lo Duca. "We also didn't fill the holes left by Encarnacion and Roberts." Guh? This doesn't even stand up to Plaschke statistics, let alone actual ones.
The host (who wasn't A Martinez, I'm not sure who it was) basically agrees with him, and then says that we miss Guillmero Mota more than anyone. This is the same Guillermo Mota who has a 5.40 ERA since leaving the Dodgers. Lovely.
Undetered, I actually venture into the official Dodgers forum. Even they can't be idiots today, right? Wrong.
Let this lesson be learned, no matter what the situation, Dodger fans can still say something stupid.|||111862701538925878|||Three Seop Choi! (Yes, I Know This Will Be Everywhere)
There has been a rather disturbing trend of our starters going out there completely flat, then settling down once they've allowed three or four runs. Let's hope that stops quickly.
Good to see Grabowski hit another home run, even if it means that he earned himself a roster spot until Tiger Woods stops getting invites to the Masters. Considering Bradley's status, we might have to get used to the idea of Grabowski playing left field, so we might as well enjoy his success. Choi hits another home run, and Jim Tracy rewards him by letting him hit against a lefty, even with Saenz on the bench. Hopefully this becomes a trend.
Izturis got hurt. We'll now see if Olney calling him our most important player is correct. (By the way, nothing will come of that like I said it would. No matter what tweaks I made to my simulation software, Jeff Weaver kept winning Cy Youngs and Milton Bradley kept hitting .220. I soon realized using that for anything resembling accuracy would be pointless. In terms of purely anecdotal evidence, Jeff Kent is our most important player.) My main concern is that Oscar Robles gets starts at short, instead of shifting Antonio Perez to short and playing Mike Edwards at third.
In other news...
D.J. Houlton keeps the fourth starter job over Derek Thompson. I don't really like this move. Thompson has shown potential, and having him rot as Erickson number two can't do much for his development. I personally believe we should keep throwing him out there until the league adjusts to him. After that, do with him what you will. I have much less faith in Houlton, and I am fully willing to believe that last outing was a fluke. If he does it again tomorrow, then, good, he made the necessary adjustments. If not, well, we aren't winning the series.
The argument I can see for Houlton instead of Thompson is that Thompson is not long for this lineup. He will likely be sent down when Perez comes back, or, if Erickson somehow dodges a bullet, when Dessens comes back. Houlton could be getting groomed to be a permanent fixture in the rotation.
Breaking news, Bradley makes a breakthrough in his recovery, and Choi might get starts against lefties. Very good news.
Twins fans note that our outfield sucks. I have to pretty much agree with them. Drew is fine out in center, but Grabowski is truly abysmal, and Werth scares me. We keep hearing he's our third center fielder, but I've yet to see anything to justify that. His arm is weak, and he sometimes gets the "deer in the headlights" look that I've only seen out of Jeromy Burnitz prior to this. I realize this is only a stopgap until Bradley comes back, but, if he stays out for a prolonged period of time, this could start to hurt us. (They also note that we go to the game late and leave early. Truly clever.)
Batgirl is a highly quality Twins blog. I recommend the Lego reenactments.|||111855675639175424|||Dodgers Lose: I Feel Fine
Alan K. Hull|||Why DJ Houlton Should Stay in the Rotation Over Derek Thompson:-He was listed as a Double A All-Star by Baseball America last season
-His Statline
W/L: 12-5, IP: 159, ERA: 2.94, HR: 14, K/BB: 159/47
The weekend - Went to the game on Sunday, and the person sitting next to me probably thought I was crazy after the coronary I had when I heard the starting lineup. Honestly, what was Tracy thinking? Even if playing Robles was the right idea, why on Earth do you do this:
1B: Kent
2B: Perez
3B: Saenz
SS: Robles
Using the same exact players, doesn't this infield look much better?
1B: Saenz
2B: Kent
3B: Robles
SS: Saenz
Of course, it is something of a moot point since Tracy had to pinch hit for his lead off hitter (how many teams have done that this year?), and properly aligned the defense there after. It didn't help matters that Tracy put a backwards platoon in, playing the righties Repko and Saenz against the righty Obermuller. Tracy said that this was because Obermuller has gotten hit harder by righties than lefties this year. This is a true statement. However, the demons of small sample size come back to bite Tracy again, when you see that Obermuller has faced about forty right handed batters this year. Predictably, Saenz and Repko failed against Obermuller.
It also doesn't help that Tracy contradicted himself by playing Robles. If Obermuller is more successful against lefties, why wasn't Mike Edwards in the game in the first place? Who knows.
Monday - We win. Yay.
The draft - The Dodgers pick of Luke Hochevar highlights what is wrong with the draft. Am I happy that the Dodgers got the second or third best pitcher in the draft with the fortieth pick? Of course. If the draft was anything resembling fair, would we have gotten Hochevar? No.
I have no problem with what Scott Boras does with established players. If someone is stupid enough to pay out the nose for one player, Boras simply did his job. History has shown that one massive free agent doesn't help very much.
To deny a non competitive team any hope for the future, however, is just ridiculous. Other teams need a player like Hochevar far more than we do, yet they are immediately shut out of the best players, simply because Boras scares them off. While I'm against a salary cap in baseball, there needs to be some spending limits in the draft. This would at least give a team like Kansas City a chance to get some class A free-agents, so they can stock up on compensation picks.
Tuesday - Wow. Anything I have to say has already been covered elsewhere. Erickson? I don't see how anyone can possibly think that Tracy is a good manager after that display. At least Duaner made an appearance instead of Carrara in the seventh. It didn't work out, but, it was the right thing to do.
Wednesday - Yay, we win again. Good Weaver makes an appearance, his third straight (if you are willing to count the grand slam followed by a no-hitter a good appearance.) Hopefully this will mark a turn around for him. Last year, he followed up a miserable April with a 2.90 ERA in May, so, hopefully the turn around is just happening a little later this year. Weaver's velocity is back to where it used to be, so maybe he might actually know better than me about his health status. (Imagine that.)
Thursday - I toil all day on a project. Woe is me.
Friday - Wow. If it wasn't for all the ridiculous wins we got at the beginning of the year, I would call this the game of the year. Tracy almost gives away the game early by warming up Erickson, despite only being down by one run. Alas, Penny managed to save us, recover from his horrendous start, and retire the next 12.
The bottom of the ninth might have finally enlightened me to why people actually want to keep Jim Tracy around. With the game tied and the heart of the order coming up for the Dodgers, Gardenhire, for reasons only known to him, decides to bring in Terry Mulholland instead of Joe Nathan. "Okay", I thought, "no one can be that stupid, he's just bringing in his only lefty to face Choi, and then we'll see Nathan. After all, Olmedo's out of the game, so Tracy can't pinch hit for Choi." Nope, Gardenhire still has J.C. Romero on the bench. Let's compare stats, shall we?
Romero - 22 K, 14BB, 1.50 ERA, 1.2 WHIP
Mulholland - 42 years old. Is Terry Mulholland.
To be fair, Mulholland's stats aren't horrible, but there is no justification for using him instead of Romero if you want a LOOGY. Fortunately, Hee Seop quickly pointed out how stupid this move was, and ended the game on the first pitch. He'll be rewarded by getting first dibs on seats in the bench next time a lefty comes into the game. All in all, a very fun game to watch.
Odds and Ends
Possibly one of the worst articles I've ever seen, and it doesn't even come from the L.A. Times. I would like someone to explain to me what "getting the most out of your players" actually means. This especially applies when this is your main point to support your thesis. I suppose it is better than "DePodesta put together a crappy team, so you should thank Tracy we've even done this well.
I believe that Izturis' slump coincides with me not posting for a week. I fully apologize. Of course the "Vote Izturis" button on the Dodger's site might be equally responsible.
A's fans are incredibly fickle. I'm an Athletics enthusiast, and watching people jump ship on this team one third of the way through a rebuilding season is just embarrassing. You would think they would know better, seeing the success that Billy Beane has brought them. Yet at this point, Chavez is a bum, people are calling for Beane's head (note, you are a fan of a small market team, you will lose good players. The only reason you keep winning is because of Beane), and the team has no heart. Of course, Chavez is great when he goes 3 for 4 with a homer, yet, every time he gets out, people treat him like Hee Seop Choi. Every time I think I've figured out who the worst fans in baseball are, someone manages to top it.
The Adrian Beltre sob story. Really, he be playing better here, and DePodesta is a fool for letting him go.
Speaking of which, Shaikin hates DePo too.
I'm happy that Shawn Green is well received in Arizona.|||111827453506775513|||And I'm Back
|||I believe you meant 3B: Perez and SS: Robles in what the defense should've been. You have Saenz listed twice. |||Attack of the Saenz!All was going well until I glance at Yahoo's game channel and see Wunsch pitching to Bill Hall. I begin to go crazy. I then realize he hasn't thrown a pitch . "Oh good", I think, "Tracy's not stupid enough to use Wunsch against a righty (again)". Considering Carrara had thrown 3.1 innings in the last three days, blowing one game in the process, I figured there was no way he could come in. He was relegated to mop-up duty, as evidenced by the last two games.
The screen refreshes. The Yahoo banner appears. A second later, I see Carrara's face. "God dammit", I say, "Carrara's going to give up a home run to Bill-Freaking-Hall". My words were unsuprisingly prophetic. "Great, now we're going to score a bunch of runs against Milwaukee's trash bullpen, and it's not going to mean crap." Two for two.
Of course, Tracy decides to rub salt in the wound by bringing in Brazoban in the next inning. Let's see, down by two, two on, bring in one of your worst pitchers. Down by two, no on, bring in your second best pitcher. Makes perfect sense. The best part is that Tracy's philosophy will never change, only the roles. This means the best hope we have for improvement is putting Sanchez in that role instead of Carrara. (Which I thought had happened, by the way, considering the trash innings Giovanni threw the last two days.)
There were some other bad things here too, Repko hitting second, for example, but those are forgivable. Carrara needs to be put into the role we have for Sanchez right now, i.e. guy we bring in when down by a few runs, game outcome highly unlikely to be affected. If I had my way, Carrara would be traded or released, but, that's unlikely.
I'm trying to keep my sunny "hey, the season starts again in June" disposition, but, boy, it's hard.|||111786914357943872|||It Can't Get Worse Than This
The myth of Derek Jeter gains even more momentum in Tim Kurkjian's article today, calling Jeter the face of baseball. Why? Because he is a good leader, hustles, and is just plain handsome. There's something in there about a career .315 average and being on pace for 3,000 hits, but that's not nearly as important as calling your manager "Mr. Torre".
Derek Jeter is a good baseball player, I don't doubt this. However, he is also the most overpaid, overrated player of baseball. We hear time and time again about how A-Rod represents everything that's wrong with baseball, due to his massive contract. However, with the exception of possible Albert Pujols, there has been no better all around baseball than Alex Rodriguez since he signed his contract.
Derek Jeter, on the other hand, is currently the fourth highest paid player in baseball. (This is off the top of my head, putting A-Rod, Bonds, and Manny Ramirez ahead of him, I could be wrong.) Despite this, he has never been better than the third best player at his position. You can only argue that he is the second best shortstop in baseball this year because Nomar is hurt. Currently, Jeter is getting paid 18 million for an .846 OPS, below average defense, and some intangibles, yet A-Rod represents what's wrong with baseball?
In terms of his intangibles, I take the standard sabermetric stand that they are useless. Honestly, what's he going to say on that team, "Hey Gary, show a little more hustle out there"? As another case against his leadership ability, the Yankees have won zero championships since he became captain. He also disappeared in the ALCS last year, putting up a mere .566 OPS. I know that is bad statistical analysis, but it's more than most writers give when pointing out his intangibles.
As a bonus, I'll also be constructive here. If Derek Jeter isn't the face of baseball, who is? I'm going to say Curt Schilling. Unlike Jeter, he's not afraid to speak his mind and look like a charismatic figure to the fans. He's a throwback to the old days, works hard, and has actually been a dominant player in recent memory. Even casual baseball fans will always remember Schilling's bloody sock. Jim Rome called that outing one of the greatest achievements in sports history. With this in mind, Schilling is a far better face for baseball than good ol' Derek Jeter.
|||Except for that fact that Schilling is the biggest mediawhore in professional sports in recent memory. He is not the face of baseball. Nobody is. Nobody completely represents baseball. And who cares? Why does baseball need a face? What difference does it make? Andrew|||I was just trying to be constructive. My general M.O. is just saying someone is a moron, I actually put some ideas out there.Does baseball really need a face? No. But, if we had to choose, I'd much rather see media whore Schilling than good guy Jeter.
Alan K. Hull|||Um...Schilling is garbage. He calls out everyone and their mother fow whatever he feels like. He called out Scott Williamson last season, he called out A-Rod this offseason, he even called out Lou Piniella for god's sake. The guy needs to stop chirp-chirp-chirping from the DL. Yes, when he went out there with his bloody sock and balled, that was great, but look what that bloody sock has gotten him this season. Now, I understand that having the Red Sox win the world series is far more important than what he could be doing this season, but I'm just trying to put things into perspective a little. Even if Derek Jeter isn't a sabermetrically inclined player (and I do agree that he is over-paid, but really, who on the yankees isn't?), he can still be the face of baseball. First of all, the face of baseball should be a good role model, and I don't think Jeter does anything to counter this. While Barry is the most productive player in the game, no one would suggest him as the face of baseball (maybe the face of the IRS's most wanted). Also, playing in a franchise like New York, which is by far, the most well-known makes him a good candidate, and having played in so many post-seasons (which doesn't say a whole lot about him as a player, but does say something about world wide visibility) makes him a good candidate as well. Stats, however valuable, really having nothing to do with whether or not someone should be the face of baseball (even though I'm pretty certain a scrub will never be the face if baseball), so I'm going to have to agree with whoever that writer is on this one, Drew.Though it's doubtful anyone cares, here's my votes for this year:
AL
1B: Mark Teixiera
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Miguel Tejada
3B: Alex Rodriguez
C: Jason Varitek
OF: Manny Ramirez
OF: Johnny Damon
OF: Ichiro
DH: David Ortiz (Yeah, I know Delluci deserves it, but, really, who wants to see David Delluci?)
Outfield was a massive stretch since I refuse to vote for Sheffield. I also voted for four Red Sox.
NL
1B: Derrek Lee
2B: Jeff Kent
SS: Cesar Izturis
3B: Chipper Jones
C: Ramon Hernandez
OF: Bobby Abreu
OF: Brian Giles
OF: Miguel Cabrera
And, just for fun, my predicted starting All Star lineups
AL:
1B: Mark Teixiera (there is a surprising lack of name players here)
2B: Alfonso Soriano
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Alex Rodriguez
C: Ivan Rodriguez
OF: Vladimir Guerro
OF: Ichiro
OF: Sammy Sosa
NL:
1B: Albert Pujols
2B: Jeff Kent
SS: Nomar Garciaparra
3B: Chipper Jones
C: Mike Piazza
OF: Ken Griffey Jr.
OF: Carlos Beltran
OF: Barry Bonds
I really want to believe that the average fan knows there is no way Barry is playing in the All-Star game, but, I really doubt that they do.|||111766874987501103|||All Star Fun
|||As much as I love reading this blog, you really gotta spell players' names right or it tarnishes your credibility.Mark Teixeira. Vladimir Guerrero.
Andrew|||Thanks, I knew something was wrong with those names, and I stared at them for a good bit and couldn't figure it out.Don't know why I didn't actually look them up.
|||Guerrero.Beltre is being booed in Seattle.
There are articles debating whether or not Shawn Green is worse than Russ Ortiz. (Thanks, Dodger Thoughts)
Mota has been hurt most of the season
Cora has an OPS of .601 off of Cleveland's bench
Finley has an OPS of .710 for 15 million dollars
Paul Lo Duca has begun his inexorable plunge towards mediocrity ahead of schedule.
As the graph below shows (click it to get to get a better view), every year, Lo Duca's plunge happens earlier and earlier. All Dodger fans should be familiar with it. One day, Lo Duca's hitting .330, and people are getting pissed that he's not starting in the All Star Game. The next day, you look at the box score, and he's suddenly hitting .275. Dodger fans some how manage to forget this every year, and he became the most beloved man in LA. I on the other hand, hate the guy, because he would disappear when we needed him most, made disparaging remarks about his own teammates, and said that the fans had no right to boo.
Personal vendettas aside, this is graph is a good argument as to why Lo Duca's fairly substantial contract was one of the most bone headed moves of the off season. 2001: he actually manages to break out of the swoon, and is solid the whole way. 2002: swoon begins on July 10th. 2003: we start to see a drop off around June 20th. 2004: a massive drop off that begins May 30th. 2005: Average plummets 50 points between May 20th and May 30th. If I wanted to use bad statistics, I could say that Lo Duca will start plummeting on April 30th by the time his contract is up, but I won't do that.
Is this post largely inspired by schadenfreude? Yes, it is. The Dodgers are losing, I'm unhappy, I need something to cheer me up. When Dodger Fan inevitable decides its time to lynch Paul DePodesta, instead of actually noticing the myriad of other reasons we are losing, I can feel free to point to this.
At least we're .500, instead of in last place, as this hypothetical team would be.|||111766003534633543|||Things Could Be Worse
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"You have to get to Olmedo Saenz," Tracy said. "I'm not going home without the opportunity to get him to the plate. If you let Choi swing the bat, and he hits a (double play) groundball, it wipes out the inning, and instead of having Olmedo Saenz up there with a runner in scoring position, he has to hit for Mike Rose with two outs and nobody on."
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In other words "Hee Seop Choi would have hit into a double play. Thankfully, I was there to save him. Why do I rock so hard?" Never mind the logic that at 2-0 Choi is more likely to get on base than get out, let alone hit in to a double play. (For all of his fear of the double play, Tracy sure doesn't seem to mind running himself in to them all the freaking time.)
If this is honestly your opinion, then just pinch hit for Choi. Yeah, I'd be pissed about it, but at least you wouldn't be bunting against Ryan Dempster.|||111761153261933589|||Jim Tracy Is An Ass