Well, this was a depressing week, leaving me with absolutely no desire to write. The A's collapse was made final, the White Sox won enough games to pretty much secure their playoff spot, and the Dodgers decided that Brian Myrow was more important to Choi. Now that everything has gone wrong, I can look ahead to 2006.
Coming into the season, Jayson Werth was a huge part of the Dodgers offensive plan. In retrospect, these predictions might seem silly, but these were my home run predictions for the team this year.
Izturis – 2
Choi (if he played) - 25
Drew – 30
Kent – 30
Bradley – 20
Werth – 25
Valentin/Perez platoon – 25
Phillips – 15
In retrospect, these look fairly silly. (The 41 home runs we lost from Werth and Valentin certainly didn't help this year, did they?) Much to the chagrin of my wallet, I had so much faith in Werth coming into the season that I put money on him hitting 30 home runs this year, simply to prove a point. The future looked good in left in March, where Werth could cheaply hold down the fort for the next four years.
What a difference a season makes.
Looking ahead to 2006, the Dodger's outfield looks barren. There's probably a 95 percent chance that Milton Bradley will not return, leaving the Dodgers searching for two outfielders to surround J.D. Drew. For the most part, people have discounted Werth as a viable option in left, saying he's a nice fourth outfielder, but little more. Sadly, our options coming into the season are limited.
In the organization
Jason Repko
Ricky Ledee
Via Free Agency
Johnny Damon (not going to happen)
Hideki Matsui (really good chance it's not going to happen)
Brian Giles (Will be 35 and get a very large contract)
That leaves acquiring an outfielder via trade. While this could mean getting anyone, the two popular opinions seem to be Brad Wilkerson and Adam Dunn.
A couple days ago, I was fully on the Wilkerson bandwagon. He's put up good numbers his entire career, his bad year this year, attributable to moving to RFK and having a bad elbow, should lower his trade value, and Jim Bowden isn't very good at his job. Put all these things together, and the Dodgers could get a player with 30 home run power, a high OBP, and the ability to play all three outfield positions for well below market value.
Suddenly, a thought came to me, what does Wilkerson give you that Werth doesn't? Despite his extreme lack of power, Werth has had one positive aspect to his season: a massive increase in patience. In 2004, Werth had an isolated patience of .076, this year, it has shot up to .108. Oscar Robles has been lauded for his ability to take a good at bat, yet he has an isolated patience of only .062. With the exception of J.D. Drew, Werth has been, by far, the Dodgers most patient hitter this year. This is especially impressive when you consider that he simply is not a power threat this year.
With this surge in on base percentage, Werth's season has been pretty much comparable to Wilkerson's.
Werth: .241/.349/.383
Wilkerson: .250/.353/.408
As far as less important things go, Werth is a far better base runner than Wilkerson, stealing 11 out of 13 this year as compared to Wilkerson's seven out of 17. Werth has also been a far better fielder than Wilkerson this year, putting up rate2s of 103/110/110 in left, center, and right respectively. Wilkerson had a rate2 of 100/98/101.
This year, Werth has been just as valuable as Wilkerson has been, if not more so. Of course, this year, that's nothing to write home about. A better question is, can Werth put up the numbers that we would expect Wilkerson to? I believe he can.
Not only did Werth break his wrist in the first game of Spring Training, but he also had a partially torn elbow ligament at the end of last season. I would like to find a history on people coming back after broken wrists, but they usually seem to end seasons, so there's not much data. Anecdotal evidence suggests there is clearly something wrong with Werth. For example, on Saturday night, Werth simply smoked a ball. Last year that probably would have been an easy home run, this year, he flied out a few feet before the track. Anecdotally, the ball just isn't carrying off the bat as far. I know that this isn't the best case, but, with all the arm troubles Werth has had, it is far too soon to simply give up on him.
Werth can potentially provide so much to this team, that it is far too soon to give up on him. With 2006 not looking like a championship year, I see no real harm in letting Werth see what he can do if he doesn't have a catasrophic offseason.
*I'm sorry. I couldn't resist.
I really didn't want to read this column. However, the shear amount of vitriol it was generating finally broke my resolve, I simply had to know what was so bad.
Honestly, it's not even close to the worst piece Plaschke has done this year (I think his column on J.D. Drew takes the cake), however, not only does he manage to contradict everything he has wrote in the last year, he manages to contradict himself in the first two paragraphs (well, first six, thanks to his writing style).
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Another day, another Myrow.
Jim Tracy was filling out his lineup card Tuesday afternoon with the same shrug we've seen for five years.
A kid named Willy Aybar batting leadoff. A limping Ricky Ledee batting cleanup. Somebody named Brian Myrow — don't ask, we don't know — batting sixth.
And the Dodgers still on the outskirts of a pennant race?
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This would seem to indicate that Jim Tracy lacks the mental acumen to put the correct players in the lineup. Wow, Plaschke is actually damning Tracy. After all, Myrow and Aybar don't necessarily have to play. There's a man named Hee Seop, and another named Antonio that are fully deserving of playtime, yet aren't getting it due to the "same shrug we've sen for five years."
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In five years as Dodger manager, a tumultuous time during which he has evolved from knock-kneed novice to clubhouse cornerstone, Jim Tracy has never been in control of anything.
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This contradicts the very definition of what the manager does. Isn't it the job of the manager to control the game time decisions of the the team?
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Tracy's two-year contract, signed last winter after Paul DePodesta embarrassingly kept him twisting for several weeks, contains a clause that allows him to leave the team after one season.
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Thank you for doing this DePo, it was a very good way to get rid of Tracy without having to outright fire a guy who took us to the playoffs. Sadly, he called our bluff. "Fine, I'll show you, I will accept your massively low offer! Ha ha!"
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Between now and then, Tracy should ask for a contract extension for himself, new deals for his coaches and more influence in personnel decisions.
If the Dodgers say no, he should ask for the door.
He wouldn't be outside long.
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Yes, because navigating your team to a (if we're lucky) 74 win season is the perfect time to play hardball with a general manager who clearly doesn't agree with your philosophy. The fact that he "wouldn't be outside long" is a rather damning statement to the other 29 teams in baseball who sign Christian Guzman and Vinny Castilla, then wonder why their team can't hit.
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If things don't change, anywhere would be better than here.
Tracy wants to be a lame duck for a rebuilding club run by a general manager who never listens to him?
He wants to go from managing the Dodgers to managing double-A Jacksonville to managing to get himself fired?
Even his harshest critics must admit, he's not that dumb.
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Well, at this point, it is clear that Plaschke is not pointing out Tracy's foolishness, as it seemed like he was in the first set of paragraphs. I guess that he really doesn't know that (at the very least) Myrow is the Dodger's fifth string first baseman, and it isn't the bumbling general manager's fault that these schlubs are playing, the onus rests entirely on Tracy.
While I doubt Plashcke realizes this, the only double-A players that Tracy has managed this year are Derek Thompson and Jon Broxton. The Repkos, Edwards, Phillipses of the world that have been dumped into the lineup have come from AAA and above. I know that this is nitpicking, but it would be nice to see at least one correct fact in this column.
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"I'd like to think there's an opportunity here for stability, for knowing that you can grow into something year after year," he said. "If not, maybe that opportunity is somewhere else."
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This will come into play later.
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Frank and Jamie McCourt like him.
Maybe they're not thrilled with everything he does on a baseball field — what manager is not second-guessed? — but they like everything he has done for the organization.
The owners like how he calmly handled the stink bomb that DePodesta rolled into the first-place Dodger clubhouse in August of last season, Tracy calmly leading the shattered Dodgers to a title without ever once being seen holding his nose.
They like how he has remained a portrait of class and consistency this season when injuries and awful personnel moves have depleted his team again.
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Obligatory suckling on the LoDuca teat. Interesting to note how long it took LoDuca to swoon this year when he doesn't have to play six days a week. (If he keeps this up, he can go onto the list of people that have gotten markedly better when they left the Dodgers).
Is it really that classy when the owner an general manager graciously take their lumps for the season, while you completely absolve yourself of all wrongdoing?
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If DePodesta loses Tracy, he will indeed have to answer to higher authorities.
"I'm always open to listen," DePodesta said of negotiations. "But I think the next three weeks is all we're focused on right now."
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If this is true, it hopefully explains why Tracy still has a job. I want to believe it's only the McCourts that have kept DePo from putting Tracy in a Royce Gracie-esque triangle choke.
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Tracy refused to criticize his boss, but it's obvious that, beginning with contract negotiations last winter, the manager and his coaches have been mostly ignored.
"Our coaching staff has a lot to offer, look at their resumes, they have a huge role in what goes on around here," Tracy said. "Anyone would like to think their opinion is heard and valued."
Even himself, Tracy admitted.
"Yes, I would like to have my opinion heard," Tracy said. "But I'm also respectful of who makes the final decision."
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See, in most places, the boss tells you what to do, and you do it. Yeah, he occasionally gets feedback from his peons, but what the boss says should go. Tracy has been massively insubordinate since he took LoDuca's number, refusing to acknowledge that the team has changed, and shoving heart and soul guys into the lineup at every opportunity. He has been given a directive from his boss, and refuses to acknowledge it, yet DePo is the one that needs to change? Tracy is clearly not "respectful of who makes the final decision".
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But with the McCourt budget and DePodesta's computer, the fix could take several years.
By rebuilding with cheap minor leaguers instead of expensive free agents, the Dodgers could get worse before they get better.
The club is trumpeting the Jacksonville Five such that press notes from the Suns' Southern League championship series were given to writers on Tuesday. But the truth is, the Dodgers will be fortunate if two of those five players make a big-league impact.
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Okay, this last part really gets me. While DePo was "tearing up the team" this offseason, Plaschke was preaching how much homegrown players meant. Now he wants to go out and sign big scary free agents. I just don't get it. We're going to have a core of players that will stay together for at least five years, providing the stability that Plaschke so desires, yet he doesn't want that to happen by bringing up the rookies. It simply doesn't make sense.
Of course, since at most two of those players will make an impact, that doesn't matter. "Sorry Chad, you can't come up now, Broxton and Guzman have already made an impact, and the Plaschke edict says you can't possibly be good."
The unfortunate fact is that this is far from the worst thing Plaschke has written, and that's rather sad.
Name | 2004 SLG | 2005 SLG |
Starters | ||
Ray Durham | .484 | .453 |
J.T. Snow | .529 | .375 |
Pedro Feliz | .485 | .434 |
Edgardo Alfonzo | .407 | .375 |
Other | ||
Marquis Grissom | .450 | .285 |
Michael Tucker | .412 | .372 |
Discalimer: DFP does not endorse bunting in almost any situation. The following case is a very specific situation, and should not be applied outside of this case.
In the A's come from behind victory yesterday, there was a play that made Steve from Fire Jim Tracy freak out. (See comment 196.) With the score tied 7-7 and runners on first and second, Kem Macha had Scott Hatteberg lay down a bunt.
Now, I'm no fan of the bunt, but I could at least see the logic here. Bunting in this situation does increase your likely hood of scoring the winning run, and you stay out of the double play. However, other factors can contribute to this, including the fact that getting a hit will win you the game, the odds of the bunt failing, and the chances of working a walk. The question that I wish to answer is is Scott Hatteberg such a double play risk that taking the bat out of his hands is the correct play.
Staying out of the double play comes down to three factors: likely hood to get a hit, likely hood to not make an out, and the odds of hitting into the double play (found here).
Using Nichol's Expected Runs Table to find the percentage chance of scoring in certain situations, it is not a good idea to bunt if the following equation holds true:
([Batting Average] * 1) + ([Isolated Patience] * .882) + ([Double Play Rate] * .275) + ([1-Batting Average+IsoP+Double Play Rate] * .425) > .686 * .593 + .257* .425 + .882 * 15.0
Or, simplified
([Batting Average] * 1) + ([Isolated Patience] * .882) + ([Double Play Rate] * .275) + ([1-Batting Average+IsoP+Double Play Rate] * .425) > .648323
The equation is finding the expected percentage of winning based on various game situations. In this case, assumptions are made, some of which do hurt the accuracy of the equation. It is assumed that getting a hit will score the runner, and hitting into a double play will erase the runners on first and second while advancing the runner to third.
Since a stat like "sacrifice attempts" does not seem to be readily available (despite my best efforts, the only definitive source seems to be the Bill James Handbook, and I do not own it), we'll go with some numbers derived from this article on Baseball Prospectus. I have no idea where they came from, but they look good.
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Situation Success Failure Overachievement
Runners on first and second 59.3 25.7 15.0
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In this case, a success is defined as moving the runners to second and third. A failure is getting the lead runner thrown out, and an overachievement is loading the bases.
So how does this apply to Hatteberg? Hattebergs 2005 stats in the relevant categories are as follows:
Average: .275
Isolated Patience: .071
Double Play Rate: .199
Inserting it into the equation we get:
.273 + .071 *.882 + .199 *.275 + .455 * .425
.273+ .062622 + .054725 + .193375
.583722
In this case not having Hatteberg bunt costs about a six percent chance in winning the game. Really it does make sense. The sabermetric community routinely calls out managers for taking ridiculous chances by stealing bases. In this case, Hatteberg's double play percentage is so massive that simply having him swing the bat in this situation is taking an unnecessary risk.
Even the strategy of not having him take the bat off his shoulder and hoping he draws a walk is worse than this one, since league averages state the other team is twice as likely to screw something up and not get Hatteberg out as they are to walking him. (Hatteberg is probably somewhere under this 15% mark, due to his lack of speed, but it's close enough.) The moral of the story: bunting, in this situation is a good thing. It plays to all of the things we preach, it avoids the unnecessary risk, and keeps you from wasting an out. While for the most part bunting is completely pointless and detrimental to your team's success, it does have it's time and place.
Player | Position | OPS |
Jeff Kent | 2B | .893 |
Olmedo Saenz | Bench | .880 |
Ricky Ledee | Bench | .805 |
Antonio Perez | Bench | .803 |
Hee Seop Choi | Bench | .801 |
Jose Cruz Jr. | RF | .792 |
Jayson Werth | CF | .737 |
Oscar Robles | SS | .708 |
Dionner Navarro | C | .688 |
Jason Phillips | 1B | .670 |
Mike Edwards | 3B | .661 |
Jason Repko | Bench | .639 |
Jose Valentin | LF | .622 |
Jeff Weaver | P | .598 |
Jason Grabowski | Bench | .503 |
Shocking, I know.
Despite the fact that I got back from my little excursion a week ago, I was suddenly struck by a massive amount of writers block. Nothing felt like it was worth while to write about. Yeah, Mike Edwards is now our starting third baseman. I would be angry about this, but, really, what's the point? Yeah, yeah, Jim Tracy is a moron, fire him, whatever. Is anyone shocked that a guy who is at best the teams fourth option at third (Saenz, Perez, Robles (assuming he isn't playing), and a case could be made for Valentin) is getting the starts? I'm not.
Then there was the whole Bradley-Kent thing. I didn't really care. Chemistry meant nothing before this to me, why would it suddenly mean something now that Bradley is playing the race card? The only good to come of this was having the Dodgers get discussed on Cold Pizza (I needed something to wake me up without access to a clock radio) in which I got to hear Woody Paige state, and this is an exact quote, "Milton Bradley is paid a third of what Jeff Kent is and is three times more valuable to the Dodgers", and despite this, he's still the smartest person on First and Ten, thanks to the second most hated man on ESPN. My tune has changed since it was discovered that Bradley is a wife beater (go local newspaper), but, other than that, this should have been a non story.
Even the sad inevitably that DePodesta is going to get fired wasn't enough to inspire me to get off my ass and write. Why? Simply because I've stated my case as much as I could that DePo is not the person to blame for all of this, the only bad move he's made so far is the Wilson Alvarez contract, and how was he supposed to know that he was most likely on the 'roids? (Almost everyone else Jose Canseco mentioned has either shrunk or been caught, why would Alvarez be any different?) You can also make the case that trading Dave Roberts was a bad idea, but how was he supposed to know he'd magically develop power and do something useful besides blowing out his hamstrings? There are some non-moves that DePo didn't make that could go against him (Erickson, Tracy), but for the most part, he has been incredible.
In turn, we have the busiest GM in baseball, who has had about a 90% success rate in his moves, has won one division title, and had a season get decimated by injuries, and it's his neck on the chopping block? Makes a whole lot of sense to me. I've done my best to support the McCourt regime, despite the fact he's screwed up Dodger Stadium and has no money. I can't hate on a man who brought in DePo and is one for one in division titles. However, firing DePo to suck up to Bill Plaschke would lead to a Dodger related boycott. I'd support the team, but I sure as hell wouldn't spend a dime on them.
Could this just be a ploy by McCourt to garner some favor from the same people that still wish Steve Finley was on the team? Maybe. I fear the worst though. The Dodgers are going to hire someone like Jim Bowden who will bring in Bernie Williams and Mike Piazza (as much as I love Piazza, it's a horrible baseball move), and then send Hee Seop to the Blue Jays for cash and a keg of Molson. After all, Phillips needs to get his swings. It's a good thing that through all of this, Tracy has avoided all responsibility.
Gee, I suppose a felt enough passion about this to write a full article, despite the redundancy. Oh well.
There is no joy in Mudville lately, and it's just been too depressing to write about. We win big series against the Astros and the Braves, then proceed to get dominated by the Rockies. Feh. We can take down Pedro and Smoltz, but then get held to two runs by the dynamic duo of Kim and Kim? It's just sad.
At least Jose Cruz Jr. is kicking some ass.
In other news
A work of genius from Telemachos on the Dodger Thoughts comments (see 120)
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Ode to Depo (with apologies to Gilbert and Sullivan)
He is the very model of a modern general manager,
He has information of VORP and things statistical,
He knows the lore of James, and quotes matters sabremetrical,
From VORP to BABIB, in order most Logistical.
He's well acquainted too with matters mathematical,
He understands equations, both the simple and quadratical
About OPG 'gainst OBP, he's teeming with a lot o' fun,
With many cheerful facts about the best way to score a run.
With many cheerful facts about the best way to score a run.
With many cheerful facts about the best way to score a run.
With many cheerful facts about the best way to score a run.
He's very good at integral and differential calculus,
He knows the sabermetric names of players most miraculous
In short, in matters of VORP and all things statistical,
He is the very model of a modern general manager.
In short, in matters of VORP and all things statistical,
He is the very model of a modern general manager.
He knows the number'd history from the Babe to Sir Hatteberg,
Though he's a free thinker who doesn't follow the herd.
He doesn't care for hackers or the vagaries of bunting,
Indeed he thinks the concept of sacrifice most affronting,
He can tell undoubted Giambis from the Guzmans and the Reyes,
Though his moves leave Plaschke and Simers in a Daze.
He's a devout worshiper at the worthy church of Hee,
And always seeks players who fit "Depo-ball" to a T.
And always seeks players who fit "Depo-ball" to a T.
And always seeks players who fit "Depo-ball" to a T.
And always seeks players who fit "Depo-ball" to a T.
In short, in matters of VORP and all things statistical,
He is the very model of a modern general manager.
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Athletics Nation has gone completely insane.
Angel Nation doesn't like Rob Neyer.
Joe Morgan might actually have brain damage.