Dodger Math

For The People On RSS Feeds

2005-11-26T18:22:00.000-08:00

Dodger Math has a new home at www.dodgermath.com.

This Is Why They're Still Loveable

2005-11-17T20:12:00.000-08:00

Despite having what I thought were the best teams in the NL the last two years, the Chicago Cubs have decided to go back to being lovable losers. While they had several issues last year: a lineup where the first two hitters combined almost got out OPSed by the number three hitter, an outfield that was staggeringly bad, at least until Murton arrived, and a fantastically injury prone starting rotation that lacked depth, the Cubs have decided to spend their budget at the craps table and invest in middle relief while not addressing any of their weaknesses.

Here's the signings the Cubs have made this off season:
Neifi Perez: two years, five million to the worst hitter of the last decade. One of the two reasons why Derrek Lee didn't have four thousand RBI this year.

Glendon Rusch: Two years, six million. This actually isn't a bad signing. Over the last two years, he's put up a very similar ERA to Jeff Weaver, and has had a decent strikeout rate (6.8 K/9) and walk rate. (2.33 K/BB) (Compared to 6.28 K/9 and 2.81 K/BB for Weaver). Weaver will likely get ten million dollars a year this off season. Compared to this, Rusch, who doesn't have the massive home run rates that Weaver does, could be the pitching steal of the off season.

Ryan Dempster: Three years, fifteen million. The very reason why sabermetrics avoids guys who suddenly get a lot of saves like the plague. Coming into this season, Dempster's career best ERA was 3.66. He had a reputation as a guy who could throw hard, but sometimes struggled with his control. Dempster came into his own in the closer role, however, becoming a guy who could throw hard, but sometimes struggled with his control.

I didn't watch a lot of Cubs games this year, but from what I saw, I got a definite Jeff Shaw vibe off of him. Yeah, he got the save, but he usually gave up a double and a walk to do so. His 1.43 WHIP certainly didn't inspire confidence. Like Shaw, it seems like the Cubs could run anyone else out there, and he'd do just about as well. It certainly wouldn't surprise me if Dempster lumped a few more of those hits and walks together, compiled a five and a half ERA, and lost his job by the All Star Break.

Scott Eyre: Three years, eleven million. The Cubs made a terrible mistake here. Don't get me wrong, Eyre was good this year, very good. He had the third best ARP in baseball, behind only Huston Street and Cliff Politte. Sounds good, right? The problem is that like all middle relievers, this is largely governed by small sample size. Eyre has a career ERA+ of 98, and will be 34 years old next year. He managed to avoid the home run this year, and had a good strikeout rate (8.3 K/9), but his walk rate is rather high (3.5 BB/9) and he had a low .268 BABIP. Eyre is a slightly above average reliever bolstered by small sample size.

You simply can not pay for middle relief, and the Cubs had an opportunity to have a solid bullpen for a low cost this year, but could destroy it, if they really are trading two good, young pitchers, most notably Rich Hill, for Juan Pierre. I don't really see what this accomplishes. Pierre would replace Corey Patterson, a player with good speed and power, but only has a career isolated patience of .041. Pierre has slightly more speed, but has no power, similar defense, and a career isolated patience of .050. The Cubs also already have a player very similar to Pierre in Jerry Hairston. This move, if it were true, doesn't help the Cubs in any way. Not really seeing why this is worth paying a combined 26 million dollars to fill a hole that likely could have been filled for 650 thousand.

The Cubs had their opportunity in the last two years, and they blew it. They have two options, either make one more go at it, by blowing a bunch of money on players like Burnett and Giles, crippling the team for the future but making a run while Prior, Zambrano, and, if you're optimistic, Wood are still together. They could also consolidate their young talents like Matt Murton and Rich Hill, and sacrifice the next couple of seasons to make a run in a few years. The way the teams contracts are currently structured, this is a less likely scenario. Instead, they're doing neither. By paying a lot of money to players who don't deserve it, while possibly losing young players and not solving any of their problems, the Cubs are dooming themselves to several more seasons without a World Series win, but they won't have the White Sox or Red Sox to keep them company.

Categories: General Baseball

I Am Less Than Optimistic

2005-11-16T12:03:00.000-08:00

The Dodgers tireless search for a general manager, highlighted by snubbs from Pat Gillick, Gerry Hunsicker, and Theo Epstein, has finally come to an end. Paul DePodesta's successor is Ned Coletti.

Oh, God.

Let's put aside Coletti's actual qualifications for a second and wonder what the heck Frank McCourt is thinking. Since DePo's firing, we've been told that we're going to emphasize the "Dodger way". I was rightfully scared by what this meant, but for the average Cora loving Dodger fan, this was a good thing. Since they are the clear majority, master of P.R. McCourt was on the right track. Then he ends up hiring a hated Giant, who has never been a general manager, as the G.M. Well, failed on that account. Consequently, any points that McCourt might have gotten for firing DePo have just gone out the window. Well done.

Maybe McCourt actually decided to take yet another hit and sign the best G.M. for the job. We don't know enough about Coletti to know if this is true or not. All we really have is an interview he did with Baseball Prospecuts, and a couple of quotes.

“This guy might be the most impressive first-impression guy I've ever met in my life. We talked for an hour in my office one day, and he never even talked about grabbing a bat. It was all about pitching."

Perhaps he should have been more concerned about Matheny's offense, considering his career high on base is .320. Matheny has a career OPS of .634, and a career OPS+ of 65. Coincidentally, this is the same OPS+ of Neifi Perez, the worst hitter of the last decade (who Colletti gave five million dollars to). A quote like this concerns me that Coletti might be a guy who values defense over anything else, no matter how fatal the players offensive shortcoming.

But when we're signing a player, especially an older one, many times it's not the dollar figure that holds you back, it's the number of years. We can't send $5 million to a mailbox because the player we have under contract isn't playing anymore.

This is a plus, but I don't know if Colletti practices what he preaches. The Giants entered this season as the oldest team in baseball, and the Giants will be handing a lot of paychecks to people over 35 in the next couple of years.

When we acquired J.T. Snow, Jose Vizcaino, Jeff Kent--all those guys were character players who had something to prove... People would tell us he's a selfish player, a loner, not a glowing report at all...He came to us as a good player, and he left as a great player, a potential Hall of Famer.

While it's good that he recognized that swallowing Kent's "bad chemistry" was a good thing, it's not like J.T. Snow and Jose Viscaino are anything to be proud of. Since 1998, Snow has been the Giants first baseman, producing largely average results (a career OPS+ of 106, mostly buoyed by his 1997 and his fluke .958 OPS 2004.). It's interesting the he mentions Vizcaino, since he was only with the Giants one year, and put up pretty bad numbers (.673 OPS, somewhat helped by a 107 rate2.) What's odd is that he promotes their character while dismissing chemistry. If this means he goes after hard workers only, I'm not too encouraged, as that starts firmly slipping into "scrappy" territory.

Having played Anaheim in the World Series, seeing them go first to third and other things like that, we wanted to bring some of that to our own team, run more, steal bases.

Gulp. Another example of learning the wrong lesson. (The Angels offense, while helped by their aggressiveness, were certainly helped by ranking sixth in baseball in OBP.)

Talking to Felipe (Alou) about him, he said Neifi could play second, short and third, that he'd be an above-average fielder, a guy who'd occasionally get a big hit and who knew how to play the game. We felt that was a player we could use.

Double gulp. Taking someone who can "ocassionally get a big hit" is not a good thing.

It's our view you can never have enough pitching. If you're short in another area, you can always trade pitching, because it's the toughest commodity to find.

Is anyone else baffled by this sentence?

(In refrence to closers)...but also to know who your people are--who has the mindset to do the job. Who can handle the toughest three outs of the game: the last three. You need the mindset, talent, and durability, both physical and emotional

"Closer mentatlity". Not a good thing. If he believes in this, why did the Giants get LaTroy Hawkins?

How a player approaches the game, how he approaches life, far outweighs what the stat line looks like.

Probably the most damning sentence of them all. While things like mental makeup do have an effect, they are not nearly as important as the stat line. What a player has actually accomplished is far more important than what they think they can accomplish. A postive mindset will show its effects throughout all levels of the baseball system, not just magically emerge once the player hits the bigs.

This interview does not inspire me. While Colletti shows some good qualities, he ignores chemistry, which gives me some confidence that Bradley will return, and he supposedly doesn't like giving 40 year olds money, there are far more negatives. He seems to cling to almost every thought that sabermetrics has long since abondoned: the importance of mental makeup, the need for aggressive baserunning, the closer mentality, the over emphasis on defense, all of these things make me unoptimistic about Colletti's reign. Maybe he'll suddenly change his ways when he gets his own team, but I won't hold my breath.

Categories: Dodgers GM Search

Well, They Got One Right

2005-11-15T10:05:00.000-08:00

After gifting Cy Youngs to Chris Carpenter and (far more tragically) Bartolo Colon, the BBWA got one right and gave the AL MVP to A-Rod.

However, the people who cast votes for the following players should be immediately banished to Corsica.

Scott Podsednik (especially the guy who gave him a fifth place vote)
Bob Wickman
Chone Figgins
Eric Chavez (as much as I hate to say it, he only had a .795 OPS)

What's odd is that Derek Jeter had his second best season ever (based on WARP), yet he didn't get the usual amount of man love he receives around this time of year, getting only 23 votes. (Advancing from the worst shortstop in history to the league average certainly helped). I'll just assume those are makeup votes.

Categories: General Baseball

I Bow To My Master

2005-11-14T20:21:00.000-08:00

In March, Google purchased Urchin, a company that specializes in web analysis. Being the generous souls that they are, they found a way to reduce Urchin's 199 dollar a month service fee down to zero. Consequently, I can abondon my ad filled tracker which has all of the interesting features disabled, and switch over to this one. Isn't life grand?

If you have a website of any form, I highly recommend picking this up, because, at the very least, stats are cool.

Oh, and apparently Blogger is going down in eight minutes. See you all at 11 tonight.

Categories: Meta

Bradley Vs. Kent Round Two

2005-11-11T15:54:00.000-08:00

Once upon a time there was a man named Ken Gurnick. One morning, Ken wrote an article and submitted it to MLB.com. After a brave blogger named Rob linked it, Andrew read it, and found several previously unknown facts dropped matter-of-factly.

Jeff Kent will ask for a trade if Milton Bradley returns.
Milton Bradley may not return until the All-Star Break.
The Dodgers may be try to reclaim Adrian Beltre.

Andrew read this, and he felt sad.

Throughout his problems (except for a short period of times) I've supported retaining Milton Bradley. There are very few centerfielders who have power, plate discipline and strong defense (though he hasn't quite combined them into one massive season yet). When you have one that can do all three, while making 2.5 million dollars you hold on to him unless he murders The Pope.

This even means holding on to him if it means losing Kent. Now, Kent had an absolutely huge year last year, and I actually enjoyed the attitude he showed. The man is as professional as Wayne Jarvis. There are four factors that prevent me from wanting to keep Kent at the expense of Bradley.

The man is going to be 38 in 2006. 38 year olds tend to have swift declines in production. For every person approaching 40 that has a successful season, there are five others the suddenly become a shadow of their former selves (see Finley, Steve).
Kent will only be on the team for one more year, and without divine intervention, the Dodgers won't be winning anything in 2006. Barring a McCourt edict, putting the best possible team out there at the expense of the future is not a good idea.
Kent is more benefical to a team looking to win now, since at this moment in time, he is the better player. St. Louis, for example, could really use Kent. Minnesota could really use Kent. Considering that Bradley has an incredibly low trade value due to the status of his knee and his chemistry issues, getting the best possible player should be the goal.
The Dodgers have a glut of infield prospects, including two second basemen playing out of position at the major league level, yet have no depth to speak of in the outfield, with only Justin Ruggiano even resembling a propsect. Seeing as he is years away, the Dodgers need a strong core of outfielders for years to come.

Of course, if the buisness with Bradley's knee turns out to be true, I would be far less inclined to keep him. While 2006 brings little hope of a World Series title, simply getting into the playoffs gives the Dodgers a chance for some 2002 Angels-esque heroics. Not to mention that whatever poor sap gets the GM job will likely be handed their walking papers. The Dodgers without Bradley and Kent might not be able to make the playoffs even in a wretched division that will likely get worse this offseason. In McCourt's mind, the Dodgers can't have another losing season, and this might force the Dodgers to keep Kent.

Of course, this is all academic, since it's looking good that Bradley is going to go. When chemistry takes a back seat to performance, only the team suffers.

(Sorry this ended so abruptly. I lost this post three times before I got it up.)

The Dodgers Are The New Eagles

2005-11-08T12:39:00.000-08:00

(Disclaimer: I know nothing about football, I'm simply using the same analytical techniques that apply to baseball and using them elsewhere. I could be completely off the mark here, but I doubt I am.)

Yesterday, in a move that only Bill Stoneman could truly appreciate, the Eagles cut Terrell Owens. This is another case of chemistry being valued over results, and getting mass approval. Who does this move hurt? Does it hurt Owens? Not really, he'll sign a contract with a team that understands having a talented wide receiver helps the team. Does it hurt the Eagles? Certainly, Owens is one of the best players in the league. Brilliant move there.

Listening to Mason and Ireland on Friday, there was a guest on that argued that the Eagles were actually a better team without Owens, citing the fact that they passed the ball 73 percent of the time, and this would make them run more. This is not a well thought out statement. If the Eagles were actually talented at running the ball, wouldn't they do it more? Most certainly. Running the ball doesn't score points, it is simply a means to an end, just because you run more doesn't mean you score more. Whenever talent takes a back seat to chemistry, the only thing that is hurt is the team.

What does this have to do with the Dodgers? They are about to do the same thing with Milton Bradley. The current rumor is that Bradley is being sent off to the Yankees. I have to ask, what could the Yankees possibly give us that is worth Bradley. Assuming money is no object, the following players would actually be worth a 28 year old outfielder who has good patience, power, and good speed.

Alex Rodriguez
Derek Jeter
Jason Giambi
Gary Sheffield
Hideki Matsui
Mariano Rivera
Randy Johnson

The following are not worth it
Chein-Ming Wang - Doesn't strike anyone out (3.69 K/9) doesn't have a good K/BB ratio (1.43) the only thing he does well is avoid the home run. If he didn't pitch for the Yankees, no one would be talking about him.

Carl Pavano - A 30 year old with a total of two above average seasons.

Eric Duncan - Do the Dodgers really need another third base prospect?

Now to introduce reality into the trade
Sheffield - He's not coming to the Dodgers.
Matsui - Going to be a free agent in a week.
Rivera - The Yankees wouldn't trade him.
Johnson - Will make 16 million dollars when he is 43.

This leaves Jeter, Rodriguez, and Giambi. These three players made a combined 59 million dollars this year. In other words, they aren't coming to the Dodgers either.

Unless the Dodgers get a very big wad of money, trading a player as good is Bradley is simply disastrous. Here's hoping that the Dodgers are able to look past something as unimportant as chemistry.

Categories: Dodgers General

Odds And Ends

2005-11-07T09:38:00.000-08:00

Covering a few stories that I missed over the last few days.

Dodgers sign Jose Cruz Jr. for 2.91 million dollars: On the surface, this is a very good thing. I advocated giving Cruz an additional one million dollars, so the fact that we were able to sign him on the cheap is a very good thing. The bad part about this is that he likely won't play in the role that I had envisioned him in: a fourth outfielder who can back up our injury prone players and provide insurance in case Werth stinks. What's my reasoning here? The dreaded "McCourt doesn't want him" at the bottom of the article. While I generally place little faith into anonymous sources, they've been right a good deal of the time lately, at least when it comes to the Dodgers front office. I suppose a Cruz/Drew/(Werth or free agent) outfield isn't so bad. It's just less than what could have been.

Padres trade Brian Lawrence for Vinny Castilla: Earlier this year, I thought that Kevin Towers had gone completely insane by trading Phil Nevin for Chan Ho Park. After Ducksnorts called me on it, I did the analysis and discovered that the back end of the Padres rotation was so bad that Park could be considered an improvement.

This is not another diamond in the rough for San Diego. Brian Lawrence is not a spectacular pitcher, putting up an ERA+ of 96 in his career (100 is average) . This was mainly hampered by the fact that he had a horrid year this year, putting up an ERA+ of 80. Vinny Castilla, since his 30th birthday, has had the following OPS+ numbers: 82, 42, 94, 61, 101, 104, and 94. While Castilla has been having a bit of a late career resurgence, it's only taken him from the dregs of the league to the league average. Picking up Castilla effectively is giving up on Sean Burroughs, who despite being the butt of several jokes (the last home run he hit was off some 12 year old kid from Taiwan, etc.) put up OPS pluses of 105 and 92 before plummeting to 71 this year. Granted, 71 is horrible, but Burroughs is only 24, while Castilla is 37 and hasn't put up above average numbers for seven years.

Never mind the fact that this concedes a 29 year old average starting pitcher who makes slightly more than Castilla does. Considering that Chan Ho Park was an honest improvement to the rotation, the loss of Lawrence does not help the team in any way.

Their loss, our gain.

Ryan Howard and Huston Street named Rookies of the Year: While the voters managed to get this correct. (Zach Duke was more dominant than Howard, but he only had 10 starts) the runners up are further proof that the writers care very little about actual results. Robinson Cano was not even the best rookie second baseman in the AL this year, yet he wins runner up? Willy Taveraz, the very definition of a one tool player (he hit .172/.206/.226 without his infield hits. I suppose having one tool is okay as long as that tool is speed) is the runner up in the NL? Joe Blanton, the best rookie starting pitcher in every category but wins gets six votes? Just miserable. At least they got the winners right, which is far preferable to when they hand the Cy Young to Bartolo or Rivera in the near future.

The Dodgers want Billy Wagner: This falls firmly into unsubstantiated rumor, but this would be incredibly suicidal if it were true. In a fantasy world where money is no object, this would be great. Who wouldn't want to see Billy Wagner as the setup man for the Dodgers? In the real world, however, this is just suicidal. Unless Gagne's elbow is currently in the former Soviet Union, the Dodgers have 10 million dollars committed to someone who has three of the 25 best seasons by a reliever ever. While Wagner is nice, he's 34, and fills a role that is not exactly a pressing need. Let's hope this isn't true.

Categories: General Baseball

Beyond Academic

2005-11-03T10:09:00.000-08:00

ESPN has already ranked the teams for 2006. Sadly, in this fantasy world where Bobby Valentine can improve the Dodgers, but J.D. Drew can't, the Dodgers are ranked 27th. That's right, they'll somehow get worse next year. This is a lovely exericse in futility, ranking teams based on moves they hypothetically could make. I particulary love the fact that they rank the Mets sixth, almost based solely on the fact that they could get Rafael Furcal. There has to be something that's more productive for ESPN than this.

Categories: Link Dump

Executive Decision

2005-11-02T14:25:00.000-08:00

Despite the fact that "Jamie McCourt is the President" is leading the renaming poll, I found myself rooting for "Dodger Math" to win. Thus, I hear by extend my thanks to Vishal and rename DFP to Dodger Math.

There will be no change to the URL, at least for a while, and dodgermath.blogspot.com redirects here. Thanks to everyone who voted, despite the fact it was an ultimately fruitless effort.

Categories: Meta

A Diversion!

2005-11-02T09:14:00.000-08:00

With nothing non-depressing to write about, I figured that I would annihilate what little credibility I had by reviewing what I wrote in the preseason for my fantasy baseball forum. Hey, it's better than sending death threats to the McCourts.

Other than some particularly scary uses of grammar that I cleaned up (not many people were meant to see these) these are my unedited preseason predictions, along with some commentary.

AL West

(Sadly, I lost my write up, I just have the order here)
1) A's
2) Angels
3) Mariners
4) Texas

The gist of this was that if everything went right for the A's, namely their rotation, they were the best team in the division. While their young rotation did more than anyone could have possibly hoped, they didn't have the power I thought they would. I expected a huge season from Chavez, along with 15-20 home runs from every other member of the lineup. (Hey, Keith Ginter looked really good coming into the season, what can I say?)

I had the Angels pegged as a hugely overrated team, one that spent 50 million dollars but didn't improve, but had one massive advantage, their bench. The Angels would be relentless simply because they could lose anyone but Vlad and would either be fine or possibly better off. In the end, I over estimated the offense and underestimated the pitching. Oh, and I foresaw big things in Jeff DaVanon's future.

I saw the Mariners and Texas as teams that had a decent offense but no pitching, giving a slight edge to the Mariners because they at least had one credible starting pitcher in Joel Pinero. Beltre was pegged as a huge mistake (I predicted a .260/.300/.430 season for him with 25 home runs), and Sexson was a good signing. Texas was an improving team, with the best infield in baseball, but simply lacked any pitching to speak of.

AL Central

1 - Indians - To be honest, you could pick any of the four teams in this league and have an equal chance of being right, but here's my reasoning. They have the only known solid offense in the league. They bring back a great young core, added Aaron Boone to it and are better for it. They also shored up their biggest weakness, pitching, with Millwood giving the Indians a fourth credible starting pitcher. The bullpen has improved with the additions of Wickman and Rhodes, making what was a hideous weakness mediocre, with Betancourt and Riske contributing.

The Indians have something that no other team in the division has: no glaring weaknesses. In this division, that's enough to win.

Pretty much right on here. Nothing really to add.

2 - Twins - The Twins have by far the best rotation in this division, and ranks among the top five in baseball. They also have a lights out bullpen with Romero, Rincon, and Nathan. So, why second? Because this offense is potentially worse than the Royals. Okay, maybe that's taking it a bit far, but, look at it. Their most solid infielder has less than 300 big league at bats. They're counting on power from a guy who never showed any until he reached the majors. Rounding this out are three solid outfielders. If either Morenau or Mauer doesn't pan out, there is no way this offense can run.

I see this team as the 2003 Dodgers. Not going to allow many runs, but they'll score less.

Again pretty much right on, other than with calling Jacque Jones a solid outfielder. Morneau didn't show up this year, and the Twins finished last in the AL in runs. A Cy Young performance from Johan Santana went to waste simply because this team couldn't score runs. Fans of pitching and defense should take note of this team.

3 - White Sox - This is a purely irrational pick. On paper, this team could easily win the division, however, like a bizzaro version of the Braves, they'll screw it up somehow. It doesn't help that when they noticed they were losing their best player, they decided to trade their second best player for Scott Podsednik. If they were playing fantasy, this is a decent trade, in real life, however, this was just stupid.

Despite the fact they tried to make their lineup worse, it is still solid. A lot rides on Rowand having the same year, if he collapses, and the Big Hurt doesn't come back soon, this team can be in an offensive hole. Starting pitching for this team is decent, but has too many questions. Buerhle is incredibly streaky, and, if he isn't on, you get team shaky with Garcia, Contreas and El Duque following them. At least you know you're going to get 10 below average wins from Garland.

I, like most other people, underestimated the White Sox this year. I at least have the out in saying that they were probably the best team in the division, but after seeing how they managed to lose in a bad division with a very good team for the last few years, I figured they would just screwup some how. Rowand didn't come through like I said he needed to, and the Big Hurt never really contributed. So what could have happened?

Oh yeah, the miraculous improvements by several members of the White Sox. I don't think anyone could truthfully say they saw that one coming.

4 - Tigers - If Magglio stays healthy, this is potentially the best lineup in the division. The bottom third of the lineup: Pena, Inge, and Monroe, is incredibly solid, and the first six are even better. So, why fourth? Because the pitching on this team is trash. Their number one starter has half a good season to his credit. Their number two starter lost 21 games two years ago. It goes downhill from there. Percival has become clever over the last two years, and looks like Mr. Blown Save now. Urbina is a good guy to have as a setup man, and Farnsworth is a decent third option.

None of this matters, however, since the starters will never have a lead going into the eighth. While the lineup is good, it can't pull off the Texas 10-9 win often enough to make up for the horrible rotation.

I slightly overestimated this offense and under estimated the pitching. It ends up with the same net result.

5 - Royals - Nothing really to say here. This is by far the worst team in baseball. Their decision to make Lima Time their opening day starter over Greinke just shows how foolish they really are.

At least to the Royal's credit, Zack Greinke actually is pretty bad. Other than that, this is the only team in baseball that won't even have a chance at being competitive in the next five years, barring massive shakeups.

Other than the preseason choke prediction for the White Sox, I was pretty spot on in the central.

AL East

1 - Yankees - The only interesting question here is whether or not they are better than the Red Sox. As I explained earlier, the Yankees are better suited for the season, the Red Sox are better suited for the playoffs. Nothing else to really say. In spite of the fact that a team with a 220 million dollar payroll shouldn't have four question marks in their starting lineup, along with two bad offseason pitching acquisitions, the rest of the team is good enough that it doesn't matter.

I nailed that, if I do say so myself. The pitching woes of the Yankees were worse than I imagined, but Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon bailed them out. Good for them.

2 - Red Sox - See Yankees, except without the glaring weaknesses. They'll win the wild card.

There's limited stuff on the Red Sox and the Yankees since I did a large write up on them that I lost. I overestimated the team due to the loss of Shilling and the general crappiness of Wade Miller and various members of the bullpen, but they ended up finishing in the right spot in the end.

3 - Toronto - Going for the upset over Baltimore for third place. Why? Because whenever a team that was horrible has a good spring, they tend to show huge improvements next year. They have a decent one and two starter, but are shaky 3-5. But that's more than I can say about the other two teams in this division. They're going to be more aggressive on the base paths this year, with Vernon Wells calling a 30-30 this year. Other than that, they don't have much offense aside from Koskie and Mr. Anti-Moneyball Hillenbrand.

While Vernon Wells didn't make good on his 30-30 prediction (breaking the hearts of fantasy baseball G.Ms everywhere), Toronto did pretty good for a team that has looked rather bad coming into the season. While they still desperately need two bats and an arm, they at least are showing some improvement. Gustavo Chacin showed good promise, but the loss of Ted Lilly puts Toronto right back where they started. Toronto needs either a corner outfielder or a first baseman to stay truly competitive.

4 - Baltimore - Yes, they have an absolutely devastating offense. It really doesn't matter, however, since their number one starter is Rodrigo Lopez. There's really nothing to say about this team, they'll lose most of their games 11-8. I guess the bullpen is all right.

Well, this one wasn't very hard. Two months of Brian Roberts being the best player in baseball didn't really help them, as Sammy Sosa turned out to be complete bust, getting out OPSed by Jerry Hairston Jr. Their pitching wasn't quite as bad as predicted, finishing 11th in the AL in ERA. These two factors balanced to make my prediction work out.

5 - Tampa Bay - I really want to like this team. They defy sabermetrics by constantly drafting high schoolers, yet a decent amount of them have panned out (no doubt helped by their perennial top 10 draft status). However, they balance this out by being so utterly stupid. Instead of actually giving these promising players playtime, they get washed up ex-superstars. When they retire on them, they forget the ex-superstar part. Really, what advantage to you gain when you play Alex Sanchez instead of Joey Gathright? We can't play B.J. Upton, it's more important for Alex Gonzalez to get his at bats.
If this team actually got its act together, played its young guys, and actually acquired a pitcher, they could be an above .500 team (a 1-5 of Crawford, Gathright, Huff, Upton, Baldelli sounds pretty deadly), but, they'll likely go out and acquire Jeff Conine and Benito next year, and start the cycle all over again.

At least with the firing of Chuck LaMar, the Conine and Benito part might come true.

Coming up next, the NL, (which makes me look far worse than the AL).

Categories: General Baseball

Worst Case Scenario

2005-10-31T15:30:00.000-08:00

I hope to God it never comes down to this.

Categories: Link Dump

I've Said It Before, and I'll Say It Again: Democracy Simply Doesn't Work

2005-10-31T09:03:00.000-08:00

Compiling the name suggestions that I liked, I leave things up to you, the DFP readers, to decide the name of this blog. The poll will remain open for some arbitrary amount of time. Thanks to anyone who suggested a name.

Categories: Meta

Reactions From Around The Web

2005-10-30T10:13:00.000-08:00

Some reactions to DePodesta's firing from around the web.

Metal Supply
"Today is a banner day for the Padres, as the Dodgers have fired Paul Depodesta."

Ivy Chat: Sees this as an opportunity to pawn Dusty Baker off on us.
"Now that he has, and Dodger owner Frank McCourt seems set on hiring an ex-Dodger (hence the interviews with Orel Hershieser), Dusty fits in Chevez Ravine."

Lone Star Ball
"If the decision is based mostly on the Dodgers doing much worse this year or hiring the "wrong" manager, it's got to rank as an all-time dumb move."

Nats Triple Play: Sees an opportunity to be rid of Jim Bowden
"First, it proves that there are front offices more dysfunctional than ours."

Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke
"The only thing worse than a tightwad owner is a meddling, rich owner who thinks he knows baseball."

Elephants in Oakland
"Screw 'em all, Paul. Come home to Oakland."

U.S.S. Mariner
"If you’re nasty enough and loud enough for long enough, and your ownership’s weak-willed, you can bring down a GM in two years."

Drunken Audible
"They are back at Square One with no manager, no general manager, a ton of players that were brought in with the explicit vision of their old GM in mind"

As for the pro firing contigent:

Socal Bloggin
"Frank McCourt made the first step toward getting the Dodgers back to the franchise that it once was. "

Fu2rman On Sports: If you're curious as to what Plaschke would do with the team.
"At first base, look at Kevin Millar from the Red Sox, or Daryle Ward from the Pirates."

And that's all a blog search for "DePodesta fired" comes up with for pro-firing replies. Neither is really able to make an effective case. Other than those two entries, reaction seems uniformely negative, either with "DePodesta is a great G.M. and McCourt is an idiot", or "DePodesta is nothing great, but McCourt is still an idiot". At least Plaschke is on McCourt's side, and that means something, right?

Categories: Link Dump

It Keeps Things Fresh, It's A Fresher

2005-10-30T09:11:00.000-08:00

We may never know the real reason why Paul DePodesta was fired. Frank McCourt's press conference yesterday certainly told us nothing, other than the fact that McCourt is a horrendous public speaker. Sample excerpt, dialog slightly altered "we...uh...thought that if we...uh...moved on with...uh...Paul then we could win more...uh...baseball." Consequently, with nothing else of note to write about until the Dodgers name new personnel, it's speculation time.

Unless Frank McCourt is an utterly bungling, incompetent fool (not completely out of the question) there is no way this decision was made until a week ago. There is no way that he would have let DePodesta start a managerial search knowing he would be terminated weeks later. What could have possibly changed in the last three weeks?

-DePo was conducting his managerial search
-The White Sox won the world series

In turn some combination of the following events occurred.

Frank McCourt was one of the people who learned the wrong lesson from the White Sox winning the World Series. Since his style has clearly shown him as reactionary (Moneyball was the big thing around DePodesta's hiring) he says "I've got to get me some of that"

DePodesta wanted a manager that didn't fly with either the McCourts or Lasorda. Likely he wanted to bring in Terry Collins, while Orel Hershiser or Bobby Valentine was the apple of the McCourts eye.

Unless DePo did something like take a crap on McCourt's desk, I can't see any other thing that could have changed in the last three weeks. As I said before, someone (I really hope it wasn't the PR firm, heaven help us if they make the baseball decisions) suddenly decided that we need to go back to the Dodger way (despite what that actually means) and DePo, unlike the McCourts, didn't bleed Dodger blue.

Despite the fact that Bill Plaschke's article today is the expected garbage (Rob at 6-4-2 goes into more detail) I'm actually sort of proud of him. I just expected todays column to blast the McCourts, the fact that he actually has something positive to say is a step up for him. While there are some people out there who disagree with the firing, the overwhelming majority think this was a good thing. I suppose McCourt got his wish.

This is really as an anti-Moneyball firing down to its core, not only with the release of stat-guy DePodesta, but with McCourt clearly wanting to overpay a G.M. for a trait that doesn't matter (good P.R.) while ignoring what is really important (building a winning team). At least the man who couldn't communicate kept up the same level of class that he's shown the entire time he was with the organization.

"I truly believe that this franchise is poised to begin the next great era of Dodger baseball," DePodesta said. "I have a tremendous amount of affection for the players, staff and front office and I wish everyone the best of luck. Most importantly, I want to thank the fans for their unparalleled support of the team."

Best of luck DePo. Here's hoping you end up with a team that actually deserves your talents.

On a final order of buisness, I need a new name. As you can tell by scrolling to the top of this page, I suck at naming things. Consequently I'll make this democratic. Make some suggesstions in the comments, and I'll either choose the best one, or leave it up to a vote. I'd prefer something Dodger related, if possible (keeping the current name is also entirely possible.)

Categories: Random Ranting

Rated R For Strong Language And Brief Nudity

2005-10-29T15:57:00.000-07:00

I was not happy when Frank McCourt bought the Los Angeles Dodgers. I figured that he would have no money, tear down Dodger Stadium, and do other hideously evil things.

Then the first major thing he did was hire Paul DePodesta, and I was very happy. After that, the Dodgers won the division and won playoff game for the first time that I could actually appreciate such a thing. Maybe I was too harsh on McCourt, with the success, and the renewed lease on Dodger Stadium, I could hold off on parking lot attendant and "LOL Frank McCourt is poor!!!" jokes, and learn to embrace these new owners.

After this decision, I really only have one thing to say.

Fuck you, Frank McCourt.

This decision reinforces the fact the ideas that have been floating around the media for the last two years. Frank McCourt has no business running a baseball team. This decision, in the context of the Tracy firing three weeks ago, makes absolutely no sense. You get rid of Tracy, presumably because he couldn't interact with the GM, and then you get rid of the GM who lost around 18 games (and I'm being conservative here) due to injuries and managerial incompetence. At the time of DePodesta's hiring McCourt said "[the hiring] also fits with a desire to recreate the feeling of stability and continuity that the Dodgers have had over the years. We are bringing in a young man and making a five-year commitment. We are looking for stability because it goes hand-in-hand with success." Yeah, this move does a whole lot to promote stability.

Just one year after DePodesta had to destroy a flawed core and make a new team, McCourt's new hire will likely have to do the same thing. If this report by Peter Gammons is correct, this will mean going back to the style of "Dodger baseball". (Since the report is behind closed doors, this is the relevant bit: "After meeting with Orel Hershiser and Tom Lasorda, McCourt, ever sensitive to the Los Angeles media, changed direction. Friday, DePodesta was ordered to meet with ownership at 10 p.m. PT, and was subsequently dismissed. Now, what could be better PR to sell the Dodger tradition than hiring Hershiser as GM and bringing Dodger blueblood -- and Lasorda favorite -- Bobby Valentine back as manager from his historic triumph in Japan. "Don't bet against it," said one person acquainted with the scene. "Tommy really wants Bobby back with the Dodgers.")

Fuck Dodger baseball.

Let me recap the greatest memories of the Dodgers that I have. I am in no way using anything for comedic effect here:

1) Jose Lima throwing a shutout in last years NLDS.
2) This game, back in 1994, where despite the fact that Mike Piazza was available to pinch hit, Darren Dreifort comes running out of the clubhouse and drives in the winning run.
3) Chan Ho Park attempting to karate kick Tim Belcher.
4) The Dodgers blowing out the Giants in the last game of the season of 1993, forcing the Giants to miss the playoffs with 103 wins.

That's it. Do you know what other storied team could have given me similar memories? The god damn Brewers. Dodger baseball has got us nowhere in recent memory. It's all about pitching and defense right? Who else remembers 2003, where the Dodgers had a historically good pitching and defense, and still lost? Maybe, after 17 years of futility, it was time for a change, and, for a brief period, it looked like it would occur. It was a good thing we had going there, wasn't it?

In comparison, here's what the Dodgers have done for me, keeping in mind that the first season that I can recall getting truly involved in was 1992:

1) Perpetually sucked.
2) Traded my favorite player (who happened to be the best player in baseball) for Gary Sheffield
3) Gave a 34 year old pitcher a contract that would give him 16 million dollars on his 41st birthday.
4) Traded my favorite player for Todd Hundley.

If the Gammons report is true, I can also flip the bird to Tommy Lasorda for his role in this whole thing. The fact that DePodesta supposedly got canned for not following "the Dodger way" along with this quote, "leadership [is] a very important characteristic for a new GM He would have a keen eye for baseball talent and experience to do the job" tells me that the McCourts are not looking to hire another stat guy as their G.M. this offseason, rather, he wants a Jim Bowden-a-like to right the ship. With the bounty of free agents avialable this winter, I'm sure this will involve giving Jacque Jones a Garret Anderson style contract.

What effect does this have on me in the end? I have to rename this blog, and I have no desire to ever give Frank McCourt another cent. The Dodgers have long been a part of my life, and I can't completely abandon them, but being a fan does not have to involve giving him money.

Thanks for the memories.

Edit>> I feel kind of bad that the guy who registered firepauldepodesta.com wasted 15 bucks.

Categories: Random Ranting

Not Going To React Yet

2005-10-29T11:12:00.000-07:00

By now, we've all seen the report that DePodesta is going to be canned. Until the Dodgers actually make some kind of announcement, I'll hold off on comment. There have been lots of things printed in the Times that have turned out to not be true. If they actually do fire him, let's just say I'm going to break my no swearing policy.

Here's to hoping I don't use any naughty words.

Sour Grapes

2005-10-28T10:01:00.000-07:00

I was going to write about how the 2005 Chicago White Sox offense, but, as Steve said in the comments of my last entry, what’s the point? Despite the fact that smart ball gets all the press, the 2005 White Sox were far less efficient offensively than the “one dimensional” 2004 White Sox. A very simple way to determine this is by total runs scored:

2004 White Sox: 865 runs
2005 White Sox: 741 runs

Apparently, when you lose your three best hitters (two, if you consider that Magglio Ordonez missed most of last year), despite what the media will tell you, it will actually drop your run production, in this case by about 15 percent.

So, if it wasn’t offense, how did they do it? Well, Alan presents a big reason in the comments from my last entry, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus.

Mark Buehrle
IP W L ERA VORP
Actual 236.7 16 8 3.12 54.2
PECOTA 205 13 11 4.47 36.3

Jon Garland
IP W L ERA VORP
Actual 221 18 10 3.50 50.1
PECOTA 180 10 11 5.05 20.9

Freddy Garcia
IP W L ERA VORP
Actual 228 14 8 3.87 45.6
PECOTA 195 12 11 4.55 33.3

Jose Contreras
IP W L ERA VORP
Actual 204.7 15 7 3.61 41.5
PECOTA 135 8 9 4.91 19.2

All it takes to make a winning team is to have four of your starting pitchers pitch into the 90^th percentile of their PECOTA projections. Not that hard, right?

What else would help? How about if the bullpen massively exceeds their expectations as well?

	2005 DERA*	2004 DERA*	2003 DERA*
Cliff Politte	2.24	4.11	5.18
Neil Cotts	2.44	5.51	7.41
Dustin Hermanson	2.86	4.67	3.55
Luis Viscaino	3.92	4.07	6.08
Damaso Marte	4.13	3.14	1.83

*DERA= Defense adjusted ERA, adjusted for all time.

Yet another lesson on why you shouldn’t spend money on a bullpen. These five pitchers combined made 5.88 million dollars this year. Three of them blew their career numbers out of the water, one slightly exceeded them, and one got worse. Once again, no lessons can really be learned here. It’s not like Dustin Hermanson had some untapped potential that was suddenly unleashed in his mid-30s. Get a bunch of cheap mid range relievers, and pray for the best is really all you can do.

What else could suddenly rise to fruition for the White Sox? How about defense? While the upturn was not as dramatic as in pitching, four White Sox suddenly got much better defensively, three stayed about the same, and there was only one disappointment, Tadahito Iguchi.

	2005 Rate2	2004 Rate2	2003 Rate2
Paul Konerko	107*	96	103
Tadahito Iguchi	88	NA	NA
Joe Crede*	108*	93	100
Juan Uribe	107	109	114
Scott Podsednik	108*	93**	98**
Aaron Rowand	106	102	96
Jermaine Dye	101	101	106
A.J. Pierzynski	104	100	108

*Career high
**Numbers from centerfield

With this, there are really no real lessons to be learned from the 2005 White Sox. Get a bunch of players together, and hope they all make drastic improvements simultaneously. Sadly, that’s hard to plan for. The best thing that could come from this season is that other teams learn the wrong lessons from the White Sox, and start trading their good hitters for scrappiness. Repko for Bobby Abreu sure sounds nice.

Categories: 2005 Playoffs

Let's All Get Drunk And Play Ping Pong

2005-10-26T21:02:00.000-07:00

The White Sox win the World Series.

I am sad.

Edit>>So, in the first of what will be many shots at the world champions, how many more games would the White Sox have won if they had Carlos Lee?

Categories: 2005 Playoffs

Willy Taveraz Is The Worst Player In Baseball (And Other Small Sample Size Observations)

2005-10-26T17:56:00.000-07:00

This would have been more timely had Blogger not been giving me guff all day.

Have you ever seen anyone look as horrible in the span of one game as Willy Taveraz did last night? To review:

1st - Popped a bunt. Runner on second with no outs.
3rd -Struck out. Runner on first, one out.
5th - Popped out to shallow right center. No on, one out.
8th - Flied out to left. No on, no out.
9th - Struck out. First and third, one out.
11th - Hit on the dome.
13th - Struck out. Runner on first, one out.

A-Rod would have been called far worse than C minus-Rod if he put up a night like this. In my desire to see the White Sox not win last night, I called Tavarez a very naughty word after that strikeout in the ninth. This is why players whose entire offensive value is based on infield hits (he would have hit .172/.206/.226 without them) do not deserve to be the consensus rookie of the year. But, I digress.

For my next small sample size observation, Phil Garner is the worst manager ever. He simply left Roy Oswalt out to die last night. Oswalt set his career high for pitches in an inning in the fifth last night, and, in what is arguably the worst inning of his career, Garner refuses to come out to talk to him, nor did he make any attempt to replace him. Combine this with his love for the bunt (see below), and his bizarre attempts to confuse Ozzie Guillen (yes, Brad Lidge is going to bat in the bottom of the ninth), Phil Garner is the worst manager in recorded history.

In what is not a small sample size observation, if there were any justice in the world, this post season would be proof that small ball doesn't work. You would think that the myth that a team needs to play small ball to win would have died when Boston won the World Series, but then Dave Roberts had to steal that base. Because of that, it "proved" that a team needs small ball to win. This post season should have done far more than Boston ever could to debunk that myth. The best example of this is the horrible bunting performed by the Angels, Cardinals, White Sox, and Astros.

In this table, a bunt attempt is any at bat where the batter showed bunt and took a strike. A successful bunt is when the lead runners are able to advance a base.

	Successful Bunts	Bunt Attempts	Percent
ALCS Game One	1	5	.200
ALCS Game Two	2	4	.500
ALCS Game Three	1	1	1.000
ALCS Game Four	0	3	.000
ALCS Game Five	2	3	.667
NLCS Game One	3	3	1.000
NLCS Game Two	2	3	.667
NLCS Game Three	1	3	.333
NLCS Game Four	1	3	.000
NLCS Game Five	2	2	1.000
NLCS Game Six	0	1	.000
WS Game One	2	3	.667
WS Game Two	0	3	.000
WS Game Three	2	6	.333
Total	19	43	.442

	Successful Bunts	Bunt Attempts	Percent
Adam Everett	1	3	.333
Craig Biggio	1	2	.500
Chris Burke	1	2	.500
Carl Everett	1	1	1.000
Orlando Cabrera	0	1	.000
Chris Carpenter	2	2	1.000
Jermaine Dye	0	1	.000
Darin Erstad	0	1	.000
Chone Figgins	2	3	.000
Jon Garland	0	1	.000
Tadahito Iguchi	2	4	.500
Jose Molina	0	1	.000
Adam Kennedy	1	3	.333
Jason Marquis	0	1	.000
Matt Morris	1	1	1.000
Abraham Nunez	0	1	.000
Roy Oswalt	2	2	1.000
Orlando Palmeiro	0	1	.000
Andy Pettitte	2	2	1.000
A.J. Pierzynski	1	1	1.000
Scott Podsednik	0	3	.000
Aaron Rowand	0	1	.000
Willy Tavarez	2	5	.400

	Successful Bunts	Bunt Attempts	Percent
St. Louis	3	5	.600
Houston	9	17	.529
Anaheim	3	9	.333
Chicago	4	12	.333

Considering that in the optimal situation, a bunt is only useful if you get it down 90 percent of the time, an all around percentage of 44.2 is just dreadful. It gets even worse when you take out the worthwhile bunts that the pitchers made. Without those, the percentage drops to 35%. Will this have any effect on the overall opinion of the bunt? Probably not, but it would be nice if these teams stopped giving up outs like they were week old baked goods.

Sadly, a White Sox victory seems inevitable (though Houston is as well equipped as anyone to win four in a row. If only they could hit.) and if Ozzie Guillen makes good on his promise to retire, he will be canonized by the media. The only really good thing to come out of 2005 is that Barry Bonds missed most of it. Other than that, this has been a sad, sad year.

Categories: 2005 Playoffs

And The Rest

2005-10-25T11:16:00.000-07:00

Since the other major awards all seem rather obvious to me, I'll just list them off here:

AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Johan Santana (who won't win, because wins are the most important stat, obviously)

NL MVP: Albert Pujols (Derrek Lee had the best season, by a hair, but since he wasn't on a contending team, it won't be counted. Pujols certainly isn't undeserving of the award, however.)
NL Cy Young: Roger Clemens
NL Rookie of the Year: Ryan Howard

Categories: General Baseball

AL Rookie Of The Year

2005-10-25T10:46:00.000-07:00

Since the end of June, I've constantly had the debate with others about who was the Rookie of the Year in the American League this year. The AL's rookie class is one of the strongest we've seen in a long time. Players who would be favorites to win the award in other years: Gustavo Chacin, Dan Johnson, Chris Shelton, Robinson Cano, and others, have no chance to win it this year due to superior options elsewhere. As I see it, there are four players who have reasonable arguments for the award:

Joe Blanton
44.3 VORP, 201.3 IP, 3.53 ERA, 116 K, 67 BB, 23 HR, .253 BABIP

Blanton was my preseason choice for rookie of the year, and he didn't disappoint, putting up the highest VORP amongst rookie. Two things keep him from deserving the rookie of the year without reservation, however.

-His three true outcome stats were rather bad, putting up a shocking 1.67 K/BB despite his excellent control in the minors, along with a below average 23 home runs.
-The only thing that saved him from complete ruin this year was his .253 BABIP, the third lowest in baseball. While, like Barry Zito, his amazing curve ball serves to keep his BABIP down, some luck was most definately invovled.

As a case for Blanton, if you take out his horrendous May (13.25 ERA) he would have had a 2.55 ERA, which would have lead the AL.

Despite the fact that Blanton had a stronger overall performance than any other rookie, if Baseball Tonight is any indication, he won't even receive consideration, most likely because he only has 12 wins.

Jonny Gomes
36.9 VORP, 407 PA .282/.371/.534/.905 ,21 HR, 9 SB, 1 FRAA2*e

Gomes was able to lead all rookie position players in VORP, despite the fact that he only played two thirds of a season. His .905 OPS was second amongst rookies (behind Ryan Howard), and he lead all rookies with 21 home runs. The only knock against Gomes might be the fact that he is a bad fielder, but, other than that, Gomes was clearly the dominant rookie position player.

Tadahito Iguchi
30.9 VORP, 582 PA, .278/.342/.438/.780 15 HR, 15 SB, 8 FRAA2*

Iguchi gets some consideration because he is a middle infielder, and things like 15/15 seasons tend to get rookie of the year voters all hot and bothered. The one thing that keeps Iguchi in contention for me is the fact that his on base percentage got hurt by the smart ball strategy. If you give him back the 11 times he reached base that were negated by bunting, Iguchi rises to a .360 on base. This doesn't include the times that the bunt failed, which could raise his OBP even higher.

As it stands, Iguchi shouldn't be a serious candidate, he was far inferior to Gomes, but I can see him stealing the rookie of the year award for doing things like bunting and stealing bases.

Huston Street
33.3 VORP, 78.3 IP, 1.72 ERA, 72 K, 26 BB, 3HR, .253 BABIP

Street had an amazing season this year, shoring up the A's closer situation after the loss of Octavio Dotel. Street lead all relievers in ARP** by five, a truly amazing feat. Street was simply lights out all season, and there is nothing that should limit him from serious consideration.

Dropping Iguchi from serious consideration, the rookie of the year award comes down to a starting pitcher, a relief pitcher, and a position player? How to best compare those? Blanton, while he was not as dominant as Gomes or Street, played a full season, and some credit has to be given for sustaining good numbers the entire season.

The best way to do this is to compare these players to the entire league, rather than just rookies. If this is the case, the award must go to Huston Street. While Blanton served as a very good third starter (and was tenth in the AL in ERA, 10th in VORP), and Gomes was an above average left fielder, Street was able to become a truly elite closer, leading all AL relievers in VORP, lead all relievers in ARP, and finished seventh in expected runs added. While Blanton and Gomes were very good rookies, Street was very good, period. Considering that Mariano Rivera is getting Cy Young consideration, and that Street had very similar stats, the award simply must go to him.

However, as I said at the start, this is a long running debate I've been having all season, and I could very well be wrong. I welcome any challenges to my position.

*Adjusted fielding runs over replacement
**Adjusted Runs Prevented, one of the better methods of measuring relief pitchers.

Categories: General Baseball

A Comedy Of Errors

2005-10-24T11:01:00.000-07:00

Another day, another playoff game greatly effected by bad umpiring. Has there ever been a post season so marred by game altering bad calls? To review:

ALDS Game Three: For the first time in recorded history, Cowboy Joe West says that Robinson Cano did not touch second base to force out Juan Rivera, despite the fact that historically, a player only has to be in the same zip code of the base to get the force.(the same call would be made on Tadahito Iguchi in the ALCS.) Instead of first and third and two outs in the top of the 7th of an 8-6 game, the bases are loaded with one out. Molina is then sacrificed home.

ALDS Game Five: Cowboy Joe West calls Robinson Cano called out for running outside of the baseline, despite the fact that the only reason he moved was to not block the throw from the catcher to first. The game shifted from having the bases loaded with two outs in a 5-2 game to the inning being over.

ALCS Game Two: Doug Eddings clearly signals that A.J. Piersynski struck out, yet calls him safe when he runs to first. Instead of the bottom of the ninth ending in a 1-1 game, there is a runner on first with two outs. A stolen base and a Joe Crede double later, the White Sox win.

ALCS Game Four: In the top of the fifth, replays show that Scott Podsenik was clearly picked off of first base, but is called safe by Ed Rapuano. Instead of no on and two out in the top of the fifth of a 5-2 game, there is one on and one out. Podsednik would later score. This turned out to be meaningless, but was blatantly wrong.

NLCS Game Four: In a game that had an otherworldly strike zone the whole way through, Phil Cuzzi ejects Jim Edmonds for arguing balls and strikes. While it is in the letter of the law for him to do so, you do not eject a star player from a playoff game unless they, at a minimum, commit arson. While the effect this had was debatable (John Rodriguez inherited a full count and hit a 430 foot fly out), Cuzzi picked the wrong time to figure out who was bigger.

NLCS Game Six: Yadier Molina is called out at second base by Greg Gibson a on phantom tag by Adam Everett. Instead of the bases loaded and no out, it is first and third and one out in a 3-0 game. While this call is far more excusable than the ones listed above since he was screened out of the play, this call cost the Cardinals 1.2 runs on average, and would prove to be the only time the Cardinals could have gotten to Oswalt.

Now joining these calls, we have the phantom hit by pitch on Jermaine Dye. While the end result was still in question, Wheeler would have still had a 3-2 count on Dye, this call potentially cost the Astros the game. Instead of the inning ending, the bases were loaded for Paul Konerko. While the call was hard to see visually, it could have been made simply by watching Dye's actions. When a player gets hit by a pitch, usually two things happen:

-If the player was hit in an unarmored area, they at the very least flinch.
-The player runs to first base.

Have you ever seen someone standing around looking confused after they were hit by a pitch? That should have been enough for Jeff Nelson to realize that Dye was not hit on the arm. All of this would be academic, of course, had Chad Qualls not thought that grooving a fastball to Paul Konerko was a good idea.

Maybe there is something to this "team of destiny" thing. That, or someone just really wants to see an entire offseason of praise for Ozzie Guillen.

Categories: 2005 Playoffs, The Joy of Umpires

Using Google For Personal Gain

2005-10-22T00:24:00.000-07:00

Using the hack described here, DFP now has the added organization of categories for the various posts. Since it uses Google to perform this task, things will not appear in the category for a couple days.

Just one more way DFP makes your life easier.

Categories: Meta

Quite Frankly

2005-10-21T19:22:00.000-07:00

I once turned on ESPN to see a man screaming at me. "That's rather unpleasent" I thought, and with that Stephen A. Smith immedately made the hate list, despite the fact I was only exposed to him for six seconds. I hoped it was the last I would ever see of him.

Sadly, watching the best of Baseball Tonight (who didn't even mention Joe Blanton as a rookie of the year candidate, and Kruk handing Tadahito Iguchi the award because of his bunts) Stephen A. came on the screen for no good reason, and immediately starts screaming a non sensecial, only tangentally related rant about how badly the Yankees need Chone Figgins.

It was so bad that since that rant, the entire Baseball Tonight crew has been making fun of him. Do you know how bad you need to be for John Kruk to rightfully talk smack about you? The screaming talking head has been popular for years, but most don't start their rants be screaming at top volume, they usually at least build up to something. I can't believe that Skip Bayless is more hated than he is. At least he's less popular than billiards.

Bob Wickman just won the John Kruk award for best player that looks like himself.

Edit>> John Kruk just had a rant against the bloggers of the world, saying that while you can have your opinion, you can't say that they were wrong, since they make good picks and they are the best at what they do. This is after he gave the Rookie of the Year award, for both leagues, to Willy Tavarez.

Further Edit>> Kruk is now literally sulking because about five analyists called the David Wright bare handed catch the catch of the year, while he thinks that Ichiro's over the wall catch was better. He then actually blamed the East Coast media bias for the reason why he lost the argument.

Categories: Media Annoyances

Book Club: Mind Game

2005-10-21T09:23:00.000-07:00

Baseball Prospectus has been hyping their new book, Mind Game, recently on their website. The subtitle, “How The Red Sox Got Smart, Won A World Series, and Created A New Blueprint For Winning” invoked ideas of a Moneyball style romp featuring Theo Epstein wheeling and dealing in order to put the right pieces into place. After going through three bookstores, I found the book, and was ready to dig in.

I was way off on my initial perception.

Rather, the book reads like a series of Baseball Prospectus articles, with little continuity between them. This point is driven home by the fact that each chapter is written by a different author. Due to this style, basic information about subjects like on base percentage are constantly repeated. The focus of the book was not on Theo Epstein, who interests me due to his amazing ability to get very good players off waivers or on the cheap, but rather on assorted subjects like how good Pedro Martinez is. This is interesting, but it’s nothing that I couldn’t already get from their website.

I had the feeling that the writers of Mind Game had no inside information, as there was no indication that they had spoke to Epstein at any point. How does Epstein pick up guys for nothing that become so useful? The main case presented is that they have a good OPS. If this were the only reason, however, how come teams like the A’s or the Blue Jays didn’t go get David Ortiz or Mark Bellhorn?

The other major thing that bugged me about this book is the fact that the Baseball Prospectus writers are generally statisticians first, writers second. One of the main reasons that Moneyball was so engaging is because Michael Lewis is an excellent writer. He was able to make Billy Beane, Paul DePodesta, Scott Hatteberg, and others into interesting characters, while at the same time breaking down the thought process of Billy Beane. In contrast, the basic narrative structure in Mind Game is present a small snippet of the Red Sox 2004 season, then go off on a long tangent. For example, referencing that Pedro Martinez pitched a good game one night, then spending the next ten pages stating that he is, for all intents and purposes, the best pitcher ever. If you’ve ever just tried to sit down and read the Bill James Historical Abstract straight through, you’re familiar with the writing style.

Reading Mind Game is like reading something that I wrote. Yes, I enjoy writing, but it certainly won’t hold up to any kind of professional scrutiny. Because the book failed to create an interesting narrative, I ended up forcing myself to slog through it by the end.

The book’s main failing is that it simply doesn’t know it’s target audience. Sabermatricians already know most of the information presented (except for a few things, like the effect that a large brawl has on a team), but the casual baseball fan will be turned off by the lack of a narrative and the general arrogance that is prevalent throughout sabermetrics (I know I am not innocent here.) Case in point: “Chapter One: The Banality of Ignorance”. Without a strong narrative or new information, the book could not sustain my interest. Despite a couple of interesting factoids, I don’t see any major league personnel being proud of the fact that they didn’t read Mind Game in the near future.

Categories: Book Club

The DFP Master Plan

2005-10-20T09:46:00.000-07:00

Real life caught up to me for the last week, causing me to not be able to accomplish anything for the past week. Hopefully, the flood of work will stop for the next couple of weeks. Combine this with me starting a couple of articles then scrapping them because they, quite frankly, sucked, I've been updateless for a week.

In celebration of my triumphant return, I'm going to detail my dream for the 2006 Dodgers. As it stands, my plans really aren't that dramatic. The main goals for this team are as follows:

-Make the playoffs
-Don't make a Chuck LaMar style signing and block out prospects.

Effectively, I'm saying 2006 is sort of a wash. Our prospects are still a year away, and, while the Dodgers have 23 million dollars or so to spend this offseason, giving us the ability to over pay someone, if Giles and Matsui sign elsewhere as reported, there's really nothing worth overspending on.

The other issue is what to do with Werth. Is it that much of a stretch to see him having a .270/.370/.500 season? Of course, it seems just as likely that he'll put up a .230/.330/.380 season, making me rather miserable. Considering his value is rather low right now, and the rather glum prospects of the next season, I have no problem keeping him and signing Cruz as an insurance policy.

The final major consideration is if Bradley is going to come back. I have no problem keeping him around for next year, and I'm sure DePo feels the same, but I can't speak for Frank McCourt. If Bradley goes, it severally weakens the Dodgers lineup, and almost forces the Dodgers to have to make a huge trade.

Consequently, several plans should be made, which I'm going to seperate into Bradley and non-Bradley

With Bradley

Sign Nomar Garciaparra to a one year contract for six million dollars

Nomar fills two major holes that the Dodgers have: short stop, and third. If he goes down, we have Aybar or Perez to replace him. Without a must have free agent on the market, it's okay to overpay for the chance to have a huge season from Garciaparra. With only a one year deal, he won't block any of the players on the left side of the infield that the Dodgers are overflowing with.

Sign Ted Lilly to a three year 20 million dollar deal

Coming off a bad season, Lilly is the only pitcher that might resemble a good deal this offseason. His strikeout totals have hovered around seven per nine for the last few years, and his home run ratio wa decreasing over the last couple years. (His injuries this year can account for his regression.) Sadly, this ratio is still rather bad, and is walk rate isn't great either. Sadly, this is what you get for seven million dollars these days. The Dodger's solid outfield defense won't save him from his fly ball tendencies, with the Blue Jays having a very strong outfield defense. On the plus side, the switch of leagues will increase is strikeout ratio by one, and slightly lower his walk rate. With Lilly getting around eight strikeouts per nine innings, he can be a solid starter. As it stands, he's likely no better than Weaver, but at least he'll make less money.

Sign Jose Cruz Jr. to a 1 year 4 million dollar deal

The Werth insurance policy. If we reach the trade deadline and Werth is performing, he can traded to fill a hole that the Dodgers need. If Werth fails, then he provides around an .800 OPS from a corner outfield slot. Worst comes to worst, he provides a strong bat off the bench and is over qualified for a fourth outfielder role. Either way, it's a good investment. There will be very little competition to acquire Cruz, as I doubt anyone wants to give the Dodgers a draft pick.

Sign Kelly Wunsch to 1 year 550,000 dollar deal.

Adds some depth to the bullpen. I'm not the biggest fan of LOOGY's, but I don't want Kuo being forced into that role. Wunsch gives the Dodgers options that they otherwise wouldn't have for a low price.

Do not sign Kevin Millwood or A.J. Burnett

Millwood's strike out, home run, and walk ratios were pretty much unchanged from his last three disastrous seasons. Yet, his ERA dropped by two runs. While he had a slightly below average .286 BABIP, and his home and road splits are almost exactly the same. The only explination is that Millwood simply got a nice distribution of hits throughout the year, shying away from big innings and keeping his ERA remarkably low despite otherwise mediocre stats.

The Dodgers have enough injury prone pitchers. Giving 12 million dollars to Burnett is a scary proposition.

Arbitration for Werth, Choi, Bradley and Phillips (about five million dollars)

I still want Phillips on the team. With the loss of Saenz, he can backup both Choi and Navarro. If he only gets 200 at bats in a season, he might not finish as horrendously as he did this year. This of course assumes that our manager is not completely insane.

Total cost: about 26 million. A little over budget, but that will hopefully be acceptable.

Putting this together gives us this team:

LF Werth
SS Garciaparra
RF Drew
2B Kent
CF Bradley
1B Choi
3B Aybar/Perez
C Navarro

Cruz
Aybar/Perez
Ledee
Phillips
Robles

Penny
Perez
Lowe
Lilly
Houlton

Gagne
Sanchez
Broxton
Kuo
Brazoban
Wunsch
Dessens

I like this team a lot. It has a deep bench, six power threats in the starting lineup, no regular with under a .330, strong defense everywhere but the middle infield (well, at least average defense), four quality starters, and a potentially dominating (or horrid) bullpen. Of course, I said pretty much the same thing about the 2005 Dodgers as well.

The non Bradley team

Without Bradley to shore up the outfield, the Dodgers are forced to look elsewhere for a corner outfielder. That leaves us with a potential Werth, Cruz, Drew outfield. Not utterly horrible, but with injury potential all around, it could be potentially disastrous. Consequently, the Dodgers are forced to look elsewhere for an outfielder. With Giles and Matsui likely off the market, does Adam Dunn or Manny Ramirez sound good?

Ramirez could likely be acquired for a song, so long as we eat all of Ramirez's salary in return. With the current state of the Dodgers outfield prospects, this won't prevent anyone from ascending to the major leagues. What it does though, is limit the avialable budget to about five million dollars. This limits the ability to get an impact starter, and have to go get someone like Paul Byrd to fill the gap. This creates a team that looks like this:

3B Aybar
1B Choi
LF Ramirez
CF Drew
2B Kent
RF Werth
SS Perez
C Navarro

Ledee
Phillips
Robles
Spare Part (Edwards?)
Repko

Penny
Perez
Lowe
Byrd
Houlton

Unchanged bullpen

I don't particulary like this team. While Manny's impact can not be denied, it opens up a lot of holes in the lineup. 18 million dollars is a lot of money for a team with finite resources. We lose the insurance policy on Werth, a productive member of the left side of the infield, and a decent starting pitcher. Too many holes, plus four years of a monster contract make acquiring Ramirez not worth while.

The other major option is to trade for Adam Dunn. Sadly, as anyone in my fantasy league can attest to, I am very bad at making trades. Generally, I start with a good team, then slowly dismantle it through poorly thought out deals. Due to this, I'm going to avoid making an exact deal, but a probable one would involve the following: Werth, Aybar, and one of our untouchables (Guzman could be the most likely to go, but the Reds really need a pitcher. Billingsly isn't going anywhere, but either Tiffany or Broxton could go.) If this hypothetical trade went through, the following situation could occur.

Lock up Dunn for four years at 40 million
Sign Jose Cruz Jr. to a one year four million dollar deal
Sign Ted Lilly to a three year 20 million dollar deal
Sign Bill Mueller to a one year 3.5 million dollar deal
Arbitration to Choi and Phillips: 1.5 million

This is three million dollars over budget, but I can see McCourt spending a little extra money to put a competitive team on the field. This gives us this lineup:

3B Mueller
1B Choi
CF Drew
LF Dunn
2B Kent
RF Cruz
SS Perez
C Navarro

Penny
Perez
Lowe
Lilly
Houlton

Ledee
Phillips
Robles
Spare Part (Edwards?)
Repko

Potentially replace Broxton with Osaria in the bullpen.

This is the strongest team we could make in 2006, but it also has the most chance to come back and bite us in the future, With Werth potentially becoming a 25 home run, 15 steals, .370 on base guy with good defense, Aybar becoming a very solid middle infielder, and one of our pitching prospects becoming a star. Of course, everyone could flame out, and the Dodgers come out smelling like roses, but, that's a long shot.

There is also the trade for Barry Zito plan. Since that requires dealing with Billy Beane, I'm not a huge fan of it.

As you can see, I don't have very many grandiose plans for the 2006 Dodgers. On paper, the 2005 team was fine until it was dismantled by injury, bizzare lineups, and under performing starting pitching. Adding to that core can only be a good thing. While the starting pitching still is shaky, this is a far better team, at least on paper, than the 2005 Dodgers.

Categories: Dodgers General

Alfonseca Dominates Again

2005-10-13T12:36:00.000-07:00

I was going to tack this on to the end of the rant, but this really deserves its own post.

I suppose this can join it as well. But only just this once.

Categories: Link Dump

Unraveling The MLB Conspiracy

2005-10-13T00:32:00.000-07:00

Pierzynski was out, there's no doubt about it. The fact that Doug Eddings blew the initial call is perfectly forgivable, I had to see the replay over and over again to confirm that Josh Paul did catch the ball. What is unforgivable, however, is the fact that Eddings clearly signaled that Piersynski was out. If you look at how he called other dropped third strikes, he points at the ball on the ground, and this was not the case here. Eddings made a bad call, and it cost the Angels the game.

However, this does not mean that there is a massive conspiracy against the Angels. The host of Angel Talk said that this was just another example of the MLB trying to screw the Angels over. This call followed by the fact that the MLB dared to play this game on its regulary scheduled date was conclusive proof. Angel Talk's argument about this call was that Eddings shouldn't have assumed that because Pierzynski was running, Paul dropped the ball. Perfectly logical, that's letting the players call the game. How should he have known then? Because Paul so calmly flipped the ball back to the mound, he must have caught it. Insert stream of callers demanding instant replay here.

He convienently forgets that the only reason the Angels are in the ALCS are due to two blown calls by Cowboy Joe West. I didn't hear any clamoring for the use of instant replay then. I use the term "only reason" because Angel fan seems to think that this game was in the bag were if it weren't for this call. This ignores the fact that the Angels looked atrocious all night, mustering a mere five hits and lasting an average of 37 seconds each half inning. Oh, and the entire bullpen had already been used at that point, leaving us with the question "how long can Estaban Yan pitch before a White Sock (singular?) not named Podsednik deposits one in the 15th row?"

I also recall a key point in the middle of the game where Konerko and Everett struck out on very questionable pitches. Did we want to lynch Eddings then?

Bad calls happen. I'm really not going to feel sorry for you if you say you lost because of a call that put a runner on first with two outs and Joe Crede coming up. Would I feel differently if this happened to the Dodgers? Probably. However, I certainly wouldn't want the rules changed because one game didn't go our way. The Angels lost a game they deserved to lose (despite the White Sox best efforts) in a horrible way. That should be that.

Categories: Random Ranting, 2005 Playoffs

I Can't Believe I Have To Root For This Team

2005-10-12T17:43:00.000-07:00

Somewhat live blogging the Angels/White Sox game

Bottom 1st: Learning nothing from last night's smallball disasters, after recieving a gift two base error, Ozzie Guillen has Iguchi bunt Podsednik over to third. A ground out later, it's 1-0 Sox. Despite the fact that Konerko hits a deep single in the next at bat, Buck and McCarver give small ball credit for the run.

Bottom 2nd: There's no such thing as an aggressive mistake. After violating the cardinal rule of "don't run on Vlad", Aaron Rowand gets a triple. Of course, Ozzie Guillen and/or Little Joey Cora was not content with a man on turn and no out, and sends him home. Rowand then gets gunned.

With the final out of the inning, Crede hit a decently deep flyball, most likely deep enough to score the hypothetical runner. Of course, he would have had to run on Vlad to do so, so who knows?

Top 4th: Tim McCarver mentions that Original Confidence is becoming a clutch post season performer because he has hits in 19 of his last 21 post season games. Total career post season hits for Cabrera: 23, good for a .274/.340/.345 line. I guess a .685 OPS is enough to become a post season hero now. In other McCarver news: after Washburn's 5th or so pitch: "It looks like Washburn's stamina is good tonight."

Top 5th: Rob Quinlan, the second closest thing to Choi on the Angels (due to the inexplicable lack of playtime behind guys like Finley and Maicer Izturis) ties the game.

Jose Molina puts down the second idiotic bunt of the game. Since Erstad was able to take out Uribe, he is praised for his amazing skills. Meanwhile, Casey Kotchman weeps.

As an aside, even though I'm sure I couldn't take repeated exposure to him, Sweet Lou is a pretty good color commentator.

Bottom 5th: Pierzynski walks. For the love of God don't steal. Also get to see the requisite really old guy who's never seen the Sox win a World Series.

Top 6th: Will there be articles about how Vlad doesn't perform in the playoffs now?

Bottom 6th: Not liking the strike zone now. One of my guilty pleasures when watching a game is learning when a player has no hair. Konerko makes the list with a big bald spot on the back of his head.

Top 7th: Mark Buerhle makes live blogging very hard. I just finished typing three sentences and he's already through half an inning.

Bottom 7th: More agressive mistakes for the White Sox. Crede goes too far off the base on a fly ball and gets gunned by the 48 million dollar man. Good thing it wasn't really a mistake.

Top 8th: Scioscia proves all the naysayers wrong. To those of you who said that bringing three catchers to the playoffs was the worst idea ever, Josh Paul starts suiting up. Meanwhile, idiotic bunt number three gets laid down. He advances to third on a groundout. The "dangerous" Orlando Cabrera coming to the plate. McCarver suggests that Buerhle might be thinking about pitching around him to get to Vlad. I would guess that the thought never crossed his mind.

Bottom 8th: Well, Lou Pinella has offically annoyed me. Praising Podsednik for catching a deep, but routine fly ball is enough for me.

Top 9th: Buerhle continues his studly performance. Had L.J.C. not decided to make a not-mistake, this game would be over. Does he dare go 10?

Bottom 9th: Angels get some karma for the job that Cowboy Joe West did on the Yankees. That was an amazingly bad call. Scioscia going for the rare double argument. I would really enjoy it if the White Sox won here, it would be rather appropriate.

Not a great way for the game to end, but, the Angels really have no right to complain.

I don't know how I'm going to be able to survive rooting for this team for three to five more games.

Noticing Pierzynski clearly being called out there. A horrible, horrible call, but it was a heads up play by Pierzynski. I can easily see every Angel who strikes out tomorrow running to first, no matter what the situation is.

Categories: 2005 Playoffs

I'm Just Going To Link To Bucs Dugout For A Week

2005-10-12T10:29:00.000-07:00

More fun from Tracy in Pittsburgh:

"The Cardinals are a tremendous model," Tracy said. "They're interesting for this reason -- they can kill you with the long ball. But what takes place with that club in between that long one being hit is what's most damaging about them."...

"It's the intangibles they have," Tracy said. "They do the little things. Sure, they can thunder you in a heartbeat. But where they really beat you down is when Albert Pujols hits the ball through the hole on a hit-and-run and it's first and third and nobody out."

You know what hurts even more in that situation? If Pujols hits an extra base hit. Which he does with startling regularity. The Cardinals don't win because of "intangibles". They won last year because LaRussa could write down "Walker-Pujols-Rolen-Edmonds-Renteria-Sanders" every day. They won this year because even though they lost Rolen and Renteria, Chris Carpenter became one of the five best pitchers in baseball.

Sadly, Tracy doesn't have that kind of luxury in Pittsburgh, where his best strategy is "Bay, then hope the umpire doesn't notice you hitting out of order". If Tracy honestly thinks "intangibles" is why the Cardinals win, the Pirates are going to have a very long three years.

Categories: The Tracy Saga

Tracy Meets His New Family

2005-10-11T22:28:00.000-07:00

Reaction from the Pirate's blogosphere over the hiring of Jim Tracy.

Bucs Dugout

The more I read about this, the less I like it.

I'm not completely impartial here, as the anonymous poster mentioned here is me (if the poor spelling didn't give you that idea already.)

Where Have You Gone Andy Van Slyke?

I'm completely willing to give Tracy a chance, but with the caveat that the young players be given fair chances next year, specifically Doumit and Eldred.

I agree with his assessment that Tracy needs a black undershirt in that picture.

Walking The Plank

Everyone in town (except Dave Littlefield) wanted Ken Macha to be the new manager. I don't know Jim Tracy from the next guy, so I'm not in any position to say whether or not he's a good hire.

The blogs of the Pirates let me down here. I wanted some hard and fast opinion, and this is all I could come up with. Hopefully, another day will give me some more content for this post.

Categories: The Tracy Saga, Link Dump

Logic Prevails Again

2005-10-11T10:20:00.000-07:00

Rob at 6-4-2 links to many columnists who have pinpointed the cause of the Yankee's problems this year: A-Rod.

If Steinbrenner feels this way, we've got 23 million dollars to spend this offseason, why not spend most of it on A-Rod? (Note: this will not actually happen.)

Edit>>Fire Joe Morgan examines this phenomena in far more detail.

Categories: Link Dump, 2005 Playoffs

A-Rod's Not A Real Yankee

2005-10-11T09:31:00.000-07:00

Scott Brosius, Joe Girardi, or Luis Sojo wouldn't have grounded into that double play in the ninth, that's all I'm saying.

In all seriousness, that game have gone any worse for people who dislike the Angel's strategy.

The Angels continued to wave their luckiest-freaking-team in the world flag, scoring the two difference making runs because the Yankee's defense was too good. Bernie Williams would have never caught that ball, and Sheffield would have had an easy out. Lovely.

There's also the fact that Joe West hates Robinson Cano and/or the entire Yankee organization. First by enforcing the "you have to touch second base" rule that is never enforced, and last night by saying he ran outside the baseline when he was clearly within the letter of the law.

Finally, the game ends on a nice play by Erstad, therefore justifying the 600 at bats he got this year. Would Kotchman been able to make that play? I don't know, but it certainly won't stop the media from calling Erstad the best first baseman in baseball.

In a note to the Angels radio announcers: you are not allowed to rub payroll in anyone's face. "The Yankees 200 million dollar payroll fell a few dollars short" quipped Rory Marcus after the game. The team that spends money at the absurd rate the Angels do can not throw that back at the Yankees.

At least I'm not a Yankee fan any more, getting rid of that horribly dirty feeling. (I actually said, "come on Jeter, let's see some of that post-season magic", with out a hint of irony.) Consequently, I can say this: you did not overachieve this year. You had a 200 million dollar payroll, and, you were the consensus best team in baseball heading into this season. (Heck, I predicted almost everything that would go wrong with the Yankees this year, and I still thought they would have the best record in baseball). As long as you can write a lineup that goes Jeter-Rodriguez-Giambi-Sheffield, you are one of the best teams in baseball. You'll go get A.J. Burnett, Johnny Damon, and B.J. Ryan in the offseason, and you'll be the consensus best team in baseball again. Maybe one day, long after Steinberneer steps down, you'll learn what it really means to overachieve, but that will be a long time coming.

Now, I have to say something that I never thought I would, all thanks to this horrendous season.

Let's go White Sox.

Categories: 2005 Playoffs

2005 Post Mortem: Injuries

2005-10-10T12:13:00.000-07:00

Injuries killed the Dodgers in 2005. Some have called the injuries an excuse. Some believe the team would have been bad no matter what happened. This is simply not the case. No team could survive what the Dodgers went through this season, losing three of the teams four best players for at least half the season. The Braves didn't have to go through that, the Cardnials didn't have to do that, the A's didn't have to go through that. The Dodgers suffered more injuries to key players than any other team did in 2005.

Some say that DePodesta should have had a good set of reserves ready for the season, again citing teams like the Braves and the Cardinals. The thing is, the Dodgers did have a very good set of reserves, they either didn't play, or got hurt themselves.

This is the bench that the Dodgers had envisioned for the season:
Olmedo Saenz (16.7 VORP)
Antonio Perez (15.7 VORP)
Ricky Ledee (12.3 VORP)
Paul Bako (1.2 VORP)
Jason Grabowski (-8.5 VORP)

Assuming Grabowski would have got shipped out at some point during the season, that is a mighty fine bench, and all the members of it performed admirably. Unfortuantely, Ledee got hurt and couldn't start for a good portion of the season, Perez didn't play, and Saenz got the starting job. People like Mike Edwards and Jason Repko weren't even supposed to be on the team. To complain about their performance is complaining that DePodesta couldn't find adequate backups for the backups. Isn't that too much to ask of a guy who was just entering his first full season? Next season, the Dodgers should be far better prepared for injuries, with the vaunted farm system likely able to contribute in the event of an injury.

Let's hope it doesn't come to that.

This chart maps out how much the Dodgers lost to injury this year. To get the chart to fit, I had to make some odd abbreviations. GM stands for games missed, and the salaries (data obtained from ESPN) are listed in millions.

Player	DL Start	DL End	GM	Salary	VORP	Salary Lost	VORP Lost
Eric Gagne	Apr 02	May 14	35	8.000	4.2	1.73	5.07
Brad Penny	Apr 02	Apr 24	17	5.100	31.2	0.54	3.66
Jayson Werth	Apr 02	May 25	44	0.337	8.7	0.09	3.48
Wilson Alvarez	Apr 02	May 03	25	2.000	-0.2	0.31	-0.07
Antonio Perez	Apr 10	May 18	33	0.321	15.7	0.07	4.02
Elmer Dessens	Apr 24	Jun 15	45	1.300	10.5	0.36	4.04
Jose Valentin	May 04	Jul 31	77	3.500	-4.5	1.66	-4.08
Jason Grabowski	May 18	Jun 07	17	0.327	-8.5	0.03	-1
Odalis Perez	May 23	Jul 05	39	4.500	8.7	1.08	3.61
Paul Bako	May 27	Never	115	0.650	1.2	0.46	2.94
Milton Bradley	Jun 03	Jul 23	42	2.500	23.7	0.65	11.71
Wilson Alvarez	Jun 06	Jul 19	35	2.000	-0.2	0.43	-0.1
Ricky Ledee	Jun 07	Jul 08	27	1.000	12.3	0.17	2.46
Eric Gagne	Jun 15	Never	98	8.000	4.2	4.84	14.19
J.D. Drew	Jul 04	Never	80	9.350	31	4.62	30.24
Cesar Izturis	Jul 05	Jul 15	7	2.150	0.7	0.09	0.04
Kelly Wunsch	Jul 08	Never	78	0.550	2.5	0.26	2.32
Jayson Werth	Jul 31	Aug 11	8	0.337	8.7	0.02	0.63
Wilson Alvarez	Aug 11	Sep 19	35	2.000	-0.2	0.43	-0.1
Odalis Perez	Aug 22	Sep 24	29	4.500	8.7	0.81	2.68
Milton Bradley	Aug 25	Never	35	2.500	23.7	0.54	9.76
Cesar Izturis	Aug 28	Never	32	2.150	0.7	0.42	0.18
Total			953			19.61	95.68

The Dodgers lost 953 games to injury this year, not counting little nagging things that cost them two to three games. These losses represented the loss of almost 20 million dollars in salary, and approximately 95.68 runs. This doesn't count Darren Dreifort, which takes another 162 days and five million dollars away from the Dodgers.

The impact of the losses stretches beyond the 95.68 runs, however. Would Werth only have contributed 8.7 runs if he wouldn't have broken his wrist. Would Izturis be nearly replacement level had he not been playing hurt? Would Valentin have hit two home runs? I doubt it.

In 2004 Werth had a VORP of 15.4 in 326 plate appearances and Izturis had a 29.7 VORP in 728 plate appearances. Had these two players performed at that rate this year they would have had a 18.65 VORP and a 19.5 VORP respectively, and would have represented an additional 10 runs lost from these two players alone.

Of course, the Dodgers didn't replace every one of these players with a replacement level body. Robles performed well in his backup roles. Ledee was not very good as a starter, and has most of his value tied up in his pinch hitting duty. All the other backups, however, were pretty much horrid, some so bad (Edwards, Repko, Grabowski) that they almost canceled out the good that Robles and Ledee contributed.

As it stands, the Dodgers likely lost 11-12 wins solely due to injury. When you combine that with under performing starting pitching and poor decisions about play time, the Dodgers could have been a far, far stronger team than they were in 2005.

Categories: 2005 Post Mortem

The Perfect Storm

2005-10-08T09:09:00.000-07:00

"You don't want to see a guy who's been swinging the bat well but hasn't got a hit yet at the plate in this situation. He's more likely to get a hit than someone who's put the ball in play"
-Joe Morgan (approximately)

I want the Yankees to win the AL pennant.

This is very sad.

Unlike the Angels and the White Sox, I won't really feel any pain if the Yankees win the World Series, I simply only feel joy when they lose.

I really don't need to see any articles extolling the genius of Mike Scioscia (it was because of him Bengie Molina has hit three home runs in three games, right?) Ozzie Guillen, or, to a lesser extent Tony LaRussa. The Yankees don't give me the same pain.

Consequently, I have to get outraged about the play involving Robinson Cano not touching second base in the seventh. I don't care if he wasn't actually on the base, the unwritten rules of baseball say you only have to be within the same area code as the base to get the out. You can't say Shaq is traveling when he does that hop move of his all of a sudden in the playoffs, and you can't start randomly enforcing a rule in an important situation. If even the Angels announcers thought the runner should have been called out, the guy was out. Looks like it's time for more September magic for the Halos.

For the next day to the next two weeks, I am going to be a boorish Yankees fan. It should be fun. Derek Jeter is the best player in baseball.

(Also, despite the fact it was for the White Sox, El Duque's performance was downright studly.)

Categories: 2005 Playoffs

2005 Post Mortem: Starting Pitching

2005-10-06T19:00:00.000-07:00

The biggest problem for the Dodgers this year, other than the injuries, was the wildly incosistent starting pitching. With the exception of Brad Penny, no Dodger pitcher managed to keep up the flashes of brilliance that they occassionally showed. I admiteddly overestimated the Dodger's rotation this offseason, calling them the second best rotation in the National League. I was wrong.

Where did things go wrong, and are they fixable? Were the flashes of brilliance really there, or were they just dumb luck? If we break the piotchers stats down by month, we can start to get an inkling as to where things went wrong. Thus, I have the month by month break down of every pitcher who made a start for the Dodgers in 2005.

(If a pitcher made starting and relief appearances, only the starts are included here. The BABIP is a couple of points low in all circumstances, since sacrifice hits are not included.)

Derek Lowe
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	5	35.3	11	8	2.04	2.80	30	24	9	2
May	6	37.0	21	17	4.14	5.11	41	27	6	4
June	6	38.3	27	20	4.70	6.34	49	23	9	3
July	6	33.7	23	19	5.08	6.15	39	22	5	11
August	6	39.7	20	16	3.63	4.54	33	26	14	6
September	6	38.0	11	9	2.13	2.61	31	24	12	2
Total	35	222.0	113	89	3.61	4.58	223	146	55	28

	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	147	503	100.6	.250	6.11	2.29	0.51	2.67
May	156	530	88.3	.311	6.57	1.46	0.97	4.50
June	167	565	94.2	.348	5.40	2.11	0.70	2.56
July	143	503	83.8	.267	5.88	1.34	2.94	4.40
August	166	593	98.8	.225	5.90	3.18	1.36	1.86
September	155	628	104.7	.248	5.68	2.84	0.47	2.00
Total	934	3322	94.9	.277	5.92	2.23	1.14	2.65

As I asked before, what did you expect from Derek Lowe? Yes, he allowed home runs at an alarming rate, but, in the end, he got the job done. If all it really took to snap Lowe out of his funk was taking a step to the left, then, good, he should be very effective next year. Sadly, this is probably not to be.

Lowe lived and died on BABIP this year, when his ground balls found fielders, Lowe was very effective, when they couldn't he was quite bad. Lowe's strike out and walk rates plummeted during his effective final two months, yet he was far more succesful due to his low BABIP and the fact that he stopped allowing home runs at a disasterous rate. (Lowe's 11 home runs allowed in August was only six away from his carrer high for a season).

The other alarming thing about Lowe is the amount of unearned runs he gave up. Lowe's 3.60 ERA masks the fact that he gave up 24 unearned runs this year, a near league leading amount. This is a recent trend for Lowe, starting in 2004 when he allowed a whopping 28 unearned runs. Hopefully, this is just a matter of bad luck, but, from anecdotal evidence, errors clearly get to Lowe, and he seems to pitch far worse once one occurs. Hopefully, he is able to get over that problem, but I'm not optimistic.

Consequently, we shouldn't expect Cy Young Derek Lowe to return any time for the Dodgers. What we should expect, however, is what we paid for: a slightly above average pitcher who will keep the Dodgers in games. Nine million dollars is a lot to pay for that, but it's a sad reality of the pitching market and the state of the Dodgers pitching staff heading into 2005.

Jeff Weaver
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	5	30.3	21	21	6.23	6.23	39	14	6	2
May	6	36.0	21	21	5.25	5.25	43	27	10	9
June	6	41.3	15	12	2.61	3.27	28	31	9	5
July	5	31.7	18	17	4.83	5.12	32	20	7	6
August	6	42.0	16	14	3.00	3.43	42	34	4	5
September	6	42.7	20	20	4.22	4.22	36	31	7	8
Total	34	224.0	111	105	4.22	4.46	220	157	43	35

	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	136	483	96.6	.325	4.15	1.78	0.59	2.33
May	158	586	97.7	.304	6.75	2.50	2.25	2.70
June	158	623	103.8	.204	6.75	1.96	1.09	3.44
July	132	476	95.2	.263	5.68	1.99	1.71	2.86
August	171	582	97.0	.289	7.29	0.86	1.07	8.50
September	175	624	104.0	.217	6.54	1.48	1.69	4.43
Total	930	3374	99.2	.266	6.31	1.73	1.41	3.65

Weaver was a bit of a dissapointment after last year, yet still managed to finish with respectible numbers. None of those numbers, however, make me feel enthusiatic about resigning him. Weaver was about league average in K/9 and was well above average in home runs allowed. The only positive aspect that Weaver brings to the table is a low walk rate. Combine all this with the fact that he falls apart after about 90 pitches, and Weaver is simply not worth the reported 10 million that Boras will ask for.

Weaver only had two good months, June and August, which fueled almost entirely fueled by a low BABIP. Weaver is simply a guy who will get you six innings of three run ball, and while that is all well and good, he is not worth the money.

Brad Penny
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	2	11.0	4	4	3.27	3.27	10	8	1	1
May	6	40.0	14	14	3.15	3.15	39	18	6	4
June	5	31.3	17	17	4.88	4.88	38	18	5	1
July	6	34.7	14	12	3.12	3.63	37	27	12	3
August	6	39.7	21	21	4.76	4.76	43	33	10	6
September	4	18.7	8	8	3.86	3.86	18	18	7	2
Total	29	175.3	78	76	3.90	4.00	185	122	41	17


	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	43	177	88.5	.273	6.55	0.82	0.82	8.00
May	162	568	94.7	.261	4.05	1.35	0.90	3.00
June	137	548	109.6	.327	5.17	1.44	0.29	3.60
July	149	567	94.5	.318	7.01	3.12	0.78	2.25
August	168	617	102.8	.311	7.49	2.27	1.36	3.30
September	79	307	76.8	.308	8.68	3.37	0.96	2.57
Total	738	2784	96.0	.301	6.26	2.10	0.87	2.98

The Dodgers best pitcher, by far, this season. After a couple months of work, which can be attributed to the massive amount of time he missed, Penny was dominate, posting the highest strike out rate on the Dodgers, by far, and keeping home runs to a sane level. Unlike Weaver and Lowe, Penny never had a month of outstandingly low BABIP to bring his ERA down. If Penny were given this benifit, he would be clearly established as the Dodgers ace. Either way, locking up Penny for the same cost as Eric Milton was a steal.

The only downside to Penny is fragility. Despite the fact that Penny missed approximately a month this year, he still put up his third highest start total for his carrer. Can the Dodgers live without their ace for a month? It's most likely something that we will have to deal with in the future.

If Penny can keep the form he showed from June on, he'll be the Dodger's ace for the next three years. Penny is better than any pitcher that is on the market this off season, and wrapping him up for relatively little money was the best move DePodesta made this off season.

Odalis Perez
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	5	29.7	13	12	3.64	3.94	24	18	8	1
May	3	18.3	12	12	5.89	5.89	20	14	2	5
June	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
July	6	36.7	20	18	4.42	4.91	37	23	11	4
August	3	18.0	12	12	6.00	6.00	25	15	5	3
September	2	6.0	1	1	1.50	1.50	3	4	2	0
Total	19	108.7	58	55	4.56	4.80	109	74	28	13

	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	118	429	85.8	.253	5.46	2.43	0.30	2.25
May	74	272	90.7	.283	6.87	0.98	2.45	7.00
June	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
July	156	569	94.8	.280	5.65	2.70	0.98	2.09
August	82	289	96.3	.373	7.50	2.50	1.50	3.00
September	23	81	40.5	.176	6.00	3.00	0.00	2.00
Total	453	1640	86.3	.284	6.13	2.32	1.08	2.64

Sadly, a lost year for Perez, and one of the primary reasons for the Dodgers failure. Despite the flak he takes (for some odd reason), Odalis Perez has been a very, very good pitcher for the Dodgers since 2002 (far better than A.J. Burnett).

When I heard that the Dodgers resigned Perez this offseason, I was out on the road, and made a very prolonged fist-pump, much to the amusment of the person driving in front of me. With the combination of Perez and Penny, the Dodgers would have a solid number one and very good number two. Good things were going to come.

Then Perez pretty much stunk after April. Hopefully, this was due to injury.

As it stands, 2005 was a wash for Perez. It's sad, but there's little we can do about it. All we can do is hope Odalis comes back strong in 2006, giving us the pitching staff that I hoped for this year.

D.J. Houlton
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
May	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	1
June	5	29.3	15	14	4.30	4.60	27	26	10	4
July	4	24.7	20	17	6.20	7.30	30	10	7	3
August	5	31.0	12	11	3.19	3.48	24	24	8	7
September	5	27.0	18	18	6.00	6.00	35	16	17	6
Total	19	112.0	65	60	4.82	5.22	116	76	42	21

	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
May	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
June	126	489	97.8	.267	7.98	3.07	1.23	2.60
July	114	410	102.5	.287	3.65	2.55	1.09	1.43
August	125	462	92.4	.198	6.97	2.32	2.03	3.00
September	128	505	101.0	.326	5.33	5.67	2.00	0.94
Total	493	1866	98.2	.268	6.11	3.38	1.69	1.81

Houlton was a serviceable fifth starter this year. By servicable, I mean that almost every other team's fifth starter is horrid, so Houlton is acceptable there. He never had a truly awful month, and had a couple of strong ones. All in all, this is quite good for a Rule V draft pick. I realize that I am accepting mediocrity here, but my standards for fifth starters are quite low.

Consequently, I will get very upset if Houlton is anything more than a fifth starter next year. With the likely departure of Weaver, Houlton becomes the fourth starter, a completly unacceptable situation. This means one of the Dodgers main targets this offseason should be a starting pitcher. (Ted Lilly is my preference).

All in all, it was a successful year for Houlton. I was not happy when he inherited the job, but he turned out to be a decent fifth starter. Let's hope he stays in that role.

Scott Erickson
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	4	20.0	16	16	7.20	7.20	24	4	8	6
May	4	22.7	16	16	6.35	6.35	26	5	10	5
June	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
July	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
August	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
September	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
Total	8	42.7	32	32	6.75	6.75	50	9	18	11

	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	92	330	82.5	.243	1.80	3.60	2.70	0.50
May	101	330	82.5	.259	1.99	3.97	1.99	0.50
June	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
July	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
August	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
September	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total	193	660	82.5	.252	1.90	3.80	2.32	0.50

In the interest of completion, I'll refrain from just putting a frowny face here.

Admittedly, I thought the Erickson expirement might work out this year. I snapped back to my senses one start later, but it's still something I'm not proud of.

The most tragic part of all of this is Erickson was lucky. His BABIP of .252 is outstandingly low for a guy who lives off contact and doesn't strike people out. Of course, the fact he allowed more home runs than he had strike outs helped a little.

Let's just agree to never speak of this again.

Elmer Dessens
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	2	9.0	4	4	4.00	4.00	6	1	4	1
May	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
June	3	15.0	7	4	2.40	4.20	12	10	7	1
July	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
August	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
September	2	8.0	4	4	4.50	4.50	10	3	1	1
Total	7	32.0	15	12	3.38	4.22	28	14	12	3

	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	35	124	62.0	.172	1.00	4.00	1.00	0.25
May	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
June	65	256	85.3	.234	6.00	4.20	0.60	1.43
July	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
August	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
September	33	110	55.0	.321	3.38	1.13	1.13	3.00
Total	133	490	70.0	.240	3.94	3.38	0.84	1.17

An effective, albeit lucky, spot starter, Dessens has quietly become one of the best pickups DePo has made. While I wouldn't be happy to start him (he doesn't have the stamina he used to), his ability to eat up four to five innings in an emergency while simultaneously providing help in the bullpen has proven invaluable.

If the young bullpen struggles next year, Dessens can prove to be an effective stop gap in the bullpen. If they don't, his ability to pitch four to five strong innings out of the bullpen is a huge boon. Dessens is simply solid.

Edwin Jackson
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
May	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
June	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
July	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
August	2	11.0	6	6	4.91	4.91	11	9	7	1
September	4	16.3	15	13	7.16	8.27	17	3	9	1
Total	6	27.3	21	19	6.26	6.91	28	12	16	2

	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
May	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
June	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
July	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
August	47	215	107.5	.333	7.36	5.73	0.82	1.29
September	78	311	77.8	.246	1.65	4.96	0.55	0.33
Total	125	526	87.7	.274	3.95	5.27	0.66	0.75

Repeat after me: there's no such thing as a pitching prospect. For the third September in a row, Edwin Jackson entered into a (and I use this in the loosest way possible) pennant race and perfomed horribly. While it's certainly not time to completely give up on Jackson, the time when we wouldn't trade him for Pujols is long passed.

Derek Thompson
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
May	1	5.0	2	2	3.60	3.60	2	4	4	0
June	2	10.0	5	5	4.50	4.50	12	7	5	0
July	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
August	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
September	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
Total	3	15.0	7	7	4.20	4.20	14	11	9	0

	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
May	20	95	95.0	.167	7.20	7.20	0.00	1.00
June	43	175	87.5	.387	6.30	4.50	0.00	1.40
July	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
August	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
September	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total	63	270	90.0	.326	6.60	5.40	0.00	1.22

At this point, there's not much that needs to be said. Derek Thompson came up, made some emergency starts, and ended up looking very good. His walk rate was a little high, but if he can recover from Tommy John surgery, he could end up being a nice surprise for the Dodgers.

Wilson Alvarez
	GS	IP	R	ER	ERA	RA	H	K	BB	HR
April	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
May	2	8.0	11	11	12.38	12.38	16	5	1	5
June	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
July	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
August	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
September	0	0.0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0	0	0	0
Total	2	8.0	11	11	12.38	12.38	16	5	1	5

	TPA	NP	NP/GS	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	K/BB
April	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
May	41	132	66.0	.367	5.63	1.13	5.63	5.00
June	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
July	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
August	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
September	0	0	0.0	.000	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total	41	132	1174.0	.367	5.63	1.13	5.63	5.00

Time simply ran out on Wilson Alvarez's carrer. Alvarez was utterly horrid in his two starts, and, fortunately, he was given no further opportunties. He was a nice surprise for the Dodgers for the last two years, but he simply had nothing left in him this year. It was very nice of him to not make us pay him next year.

And thus, we have the starting pitching for the Dodgers. We have one utter disappointment, two pitchers who were far too inconsistent, a nice surprise, and one (injury prone) hope of the future. As I said before, a lot of 2006 rests on Odalis Perez. If he can pitch like he did in 2002 and 2004, the Dodgers will have two aces, if he repeats his performance this year, it's 10 million dollars down the drain.

If the Dodgers can sign a solid starting pitcher this offseason, or if one of our vaunted pitching prospects can have a very good Spring and earn a shot in the rotation, then the Dodgers can have a very good rotation. Or, Houlton can end up being the number three starter, and we'll be worse of than this year. It'll be an interesting offseason.

A Sad Day

2005-10-06T11:03:00.000-07:00

My day has been ruined. Perpetual source of comedy Chuck LaMar has been fired by the Devil Rays.

Despite all the memories he's given us (to which you can add trading Jorge Sosa for Nick Green, and Randy Winn for Lou Pinella. Not to mention paying the manager more money than any player on the team) the best part about Chuck LaMar was the potential.

How much money would he give Bernie Williams this offseason? Who can he find to continue to block the progress of Delmon Young and B.J. Upton? Now we'll never know.

Here's to 10 years of excellent service, Chuck. There will never be another G.M. this special.

Semi Historical Ineptitude

2005-10-05T11:29:00.000-07:00

In what I assumed was for the first time since Babe Ruth hit more home runs than entire teams, two players were given a full season of at bats and managed to hit no home runs. These players are of course Jason Kendall, and Scott Podsednik. Sadly, I didn't have to go back that far.

In 1995, Otis Nixon would surely have gotten the job done had there not been a shortened season.

In 1989, ESPN personality Harold Reynolds managed to best Kendall's inaptitude, taking 668 plate appearances without hitting a home run.

In 1988, two players managed to match the duo of Kendall and Podsednik. Gerald Young hit zero home runs in 642 plate appearances, and old friend Ozzie Guillen matched this mark in 591 at bats on his way to a .314 slugging percentage. Good show.

As a reminder of how pathetic this feat is, the following players managed to hit at least one home run this year:

David Eckstein
Maicer Izturis
Cesar Izturis
Greg Maddux
Brian Daubach
Sean Burroughs
Javier Vazquez
C.C. Sabathia (in 6 at bats)
Zach Greinke (in 2 at bats)
Lenny Harris

What Podsednik and Kendall did this season was a true feat, and they should be recognized for it.

Cartoonish Super Villany

2005-10-04T22:49:00.000-07:00

Apparently, I will soon have a new arch nemesis.

Plaschke Is Displeased

2005-10-04T09:48:00.000-07:00

Since this is something of a family site, I'll do my best to keep this clean. Unsurpisingly, Bill Plashcke is not in favor of the firing of Jim Tracy.

-----
In Los Angeles today there are DePodesta fans, and there are Dodger fans, and they are often not the same person.

DePodesta fans are often statistic lovers who view the game from afar, like their bedroom computer. They are thrilled that somebody like them is in charge. They care less about winning than about living vicariously through his moves.
-----

But, I thought you liked this team? In fact, one would conclude that "Dodger fans" are far worse since they are completly oblivious as to what's going on. Jason Phillips at first base? Sure, as long as I get to hit the beach ball. Slag off, Plaschke.

Plaschke's Word Count
Spreadsheet: 2
Computer: 2
Chemistry: 1
Character: 3
Heart: 1
Indeed: 0

Paragraphs: 52

In other news

Tracy reacts to his dismissal.

A Futile Effort

2005-10-04T09:33:00.000-07:00

My playoff predictions, not that this isn't a futile effort.

Red Sox over White Sox in 3
Yankees over Angels in 4
Astros over Braves in 4
Cardinals over Padres in 5 (Peavy should take two games, plus, I constantly underestimate the Cardnails)

Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Astros over Cardinals in 5

Red Sox over Astros in 6

I picked the Red Sox to start, and I'm sticking to it. (See my retrospective on my preseason picks in a bit.)

2005 Post Mortem: Breaking It Down By Position

2005-10-03T22:00:00.000-07:00

71-91. A good 23 games under what I expected out of this team. What happened? There are so many things that went wrong with this season that it would take ages to figure it all out. Consequently, I have things to write about long after the season is done.

We can start by looking at the offense. Here are the offensive statistics for the 2005 Dodgers, broken down by position. Since this was done by a script, one liberty had to be taken: whatever position a player started the game at, all of the stats are for that position. For example, if Kent started the game at second and moved to first, all of his stats for that game would get attributed to second base. Also, the league averages were figured out by averaging the NL and AL league averages, not actually computing them out. With that out of the way, here we go.

First Base
Name	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HBP	K	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hee Seop Choi	278	35	73	39	31	6	63	13	2	14	.263	.349	.475	.824
Olmedo Saenz	200	28	53	45	19	1	33	17	0	12	.265	.332	.530	.862
Jason Phillips	66	6	15	9	1	1	8	2	0	3	.227	.250	.394	.644
Jeff Kent	34	3	13	9	8	1	5	4	0	1	.382	.512	.588	1.100
Brian Myrow	8	1	1	0	2	0	4	0	0	0	.125	.300	.125	.425
Norihiro Nakamura	5	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400
Jason Grabowski	3	1	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	.333	.333	.333	.667
Total	594	74	157	103	61	9	115	36	2	30	.264	.342	.483	.825

League average: .276/.352/.470/.822

Contrary to what the press would lead you to believe, first base is not the biggest problem wth this team. It's actually one of the of the strong points of the team. Had Choi been allowed to play the whole season, he would have basically been the league average first baseman. Not stellar, but certainly acceptable over the course of the season. Had the Choi/Saenz platoon held up over the course of the season, Dodgers first baseman would have been above the league average.

Then you have the 66 at bats that Phillips took.

These at bats where completely unnecassary, and served to drag what would have been an above average position into an average one. Phillips only seemed to come through when I was at the game calling him the worst first baseman in baseball. Thus, I looked like a gigantic jackass (this happened about six times). Thanks, Jason.

Assuming we have a manager who will play Choi next year, first base should be adequately held down for a low cost. (It's also good to know I was at the only game where Grabowski started at first.)

Second Base
Name	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HBP	K	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeff Kent	518	97	147	96	64	7	80	32	0	28	.284	.370	.508	.878
Antonio Perez	79	8	28	8	4	2	14	4	1	1	.354	.400	.468	.868
Willy Aybar	7	0	1	1	3	0	1	1	0	0	.143	.400	.286	.686
Oscar Robles	5	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.200	.200	.200	.400
Total	609	105	177	105	71	9	96	37	1	29	.291	.373	.498	.871

League Average: .274/.331/.414/.745

Unsurpisingly, second base was the strongest position versus the league average for the Dodgers. Jeff Kent had the third highest VORP amongst second baseman and was sixth in baseball in win shares. A testament to how bad the rest of the team was. I'm not saying that Kent has had a bad year, far from it, but Kent was 22nd in the league in VORP at a weak position, and he recieved a highly disproportionate amount of win shares from this contribution. Assuming Kent stays, second base should be well covered next year. There's not much else to say here.

Third Base
Name	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HBP	K	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mike Edwards	125	15	31	7	7	0	15	4	1	3	.248	.288	.368	.656
Oscar Robles	123	17	26	8	14	1	10	7	0	1	.211	.297	.293	.590
Antonio Perez	122	19	37	12	11	2	26	8	1	2	.303	.370	.434	.805
Willy Aybar	77	12	27	9	15	1	9	7	0	1	.351	.462	.481	.943
Jose Valentin	76	10	16	12	19	3	20	2	2	1	.211	.388	.329	.717
Olmedo Saenz	61	8	18	10	3	1	13	4	0	2	.295	.338	.459	.797
Norihiro Nakamura	25	1	3	3	2	0	3	2	0	0	.120	.185	.200	.385
Total	609	82	158	61	71	8	96	34	4	10	.259	.344	.378	.722

League Average: .270/.337/.435/.772

Mike Edwards recieved more at bats at third base than any other Dodger.

Mike Edwards recieved more at bats at third base than any other Dodger.

Mike Edwards recieved more at bats at third base than any other Dodger.

Despite this, and the massive revolving door of players that we had a third base, the Dodgers still managed to out OPS Adrian Beltre. While this is all well and good, being 50 points behind the league OPS is still unacceptable. Sadly, due to the fact that Tracy thought Mike Edwards was our best third baseman on the team, we have no clue who to put there. While he was willing to play Aybar when he arrived, the fact that he only ammassed 77 at bats does not make me willing to hand over the job. What we can blame on Tracy, however, is not knowing if Antonio Perez can handle the day to day duties.

The Jim Tracy perpetuated myth that Antonio Perez can't play defense still lingers. On the one had, he has a carrer 100 rate2 at third base along with a .857 zone rating (which would lead baseball, by far, if he had enough at bats). On the other hand, he does make a lot of Offerman level errors.

Saenz, while certainly not a permanent solution, did an admirable job, and we got the numbers we expected out of Jose Valentin from the position. While third base wasn't the complete disaster that it appeared it would be, it is certainly a hole that needs to be filled.

Shortstop
Name	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HBP	K	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cesar Izturis	444	48	114	31	25	4	51	19	2	2	.257	.302	.322	.624
Oscar Robles	213	24	62	25	16	0	19	9	1	4	.291	.341	.399	.740
Antonio Perez	31	0	7	1	1	0	9	1	0	0	.226	.250	.258	.508
Mike Edwards	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	689	72	183	57	42	4	79	28	3	6	.266	.312	.341	.653

League Average: .270/.322/.375/.697

Ah, yes...this. A position that again leads to more questions, but at least they aren't Tracy created. At the end of May, Dodger fans were higher on Izturis than almost any other Dodger. When the question "would you rather have Gagne or Izturis" came up on Dodger Thoughts, the near unanimous decision was Izturis.

Then he had a .220 OBP the rest of the season.

At first it was just assumed that Izturis was not a very good baseball player. We weren't that far removed from a time when Izturis would hit .250 and we would be estatic, and maybe 2004 and the first half of 2005 was a fluke. Then we discovered Izturis needed Tommy John surgery and we are left with the question: is he a .200 or .300 hitter? I don't know.

Unfortunately, these questions have little bearing on 2006, as Izturis won't be making any appearances until at least July.

I do have to commend Oscar Robles on the job he did in Izturis' absence. He held down the fort and somehow put up a higher slugging percentage than the league average shortstop. He should be a fine addition to the Dodgers bench for years to come.

My choice for 2006 shortstop is Antonio Perez, for the reasons stated above. It should be a true test in my faith in advanced defensive metrics.

Left Field
Name	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HBP	K	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ricky Ledee	170	18	44	17	9	2	40	13	1	2	.259	.304	.382	.686
Jayson Werth	126	18	26	16	15	2	49	9	1	1	.206	.301	.317	.618
Mike Edwards	91	7	21	4	8	1	15	3	1	0	.231	.300	.286	.586
Jason Grabowski	71	5	10	7	4	0	16	0	0	3	.141	.187	.268	.454
Jose Valentin	60	5	7	0	10	1	14	2	0	0	.117	.254	.150	.404
Jason Repko	56	11	12	5	1	3	13	4	0	2	.214	.267	.393	.660
Chin Feng Chen	4	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500
Total	578	64	121	49	47	9	149	31	3	8	.209	.279	.315	.594

League Average: .275/.341/.446/.787

Pathethic. The Dodgers were almost 200 points under the league average OPS. Like third base, left field was a revolving door throughout the year, except no burly protector showed up at the end of the year to bring the position back to respectability.

Left field was not supposed to be this much of a mess. Coming into Spring training the answer was clear: Jayson Werth. Then he got hurt and we had to live with a Ledee/Repko platoon for two months. After that, Werth would light the way.

Maybe not. A combination of injuries moving him elsewhere and general awfulness kept the position in turmoil. Consequently, Mike Edwards got a healthy dose of at bats in another position, which we worked to a sub .600 OPS. A healthy dose of at bats for Grabowski (who got more play time here than Phillips got at first) and Valentin made things even worse. You know things were bad when Repko was our second most effective left fielder this year.

While some of the position's badness can be attributed to bad luck, otherwise decent players Werth and Ledee put up awful numbers there, it is clearly the Dodgers biggest offensive hole. As I said before, however, unless the Dodgers can pick up a massive bat like Adam Dunn, Werth is still the answer in 2006.

Center Field
Name	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HBP	K	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Milton Bradley	282	49	82	38	24	2	47	14	1	13	.291	.351	.486	.836
Jason Repko	125	13	28	16	7	2	43	7	3	2	.224	.276	.376	.652
J.D. Drew	94	21	31	14	21	2	18	3	1	8	.330	.462	.638	1.100
Jayson Werth	77	13	22	13	17	3	23	3	1	4	.286	.433	.506	.939
Total	578	96	163	81	69	9	131	27	6	27	.282	.367	.490	.857

League Average: .271/.330/.421/.751

In spite of the fact that Repko got the second most at bats in center, this was the only position other than second base where the Dodgers could actually be considered good. Partailly, this is due to luck, Werth's .939 OPS along with Drew's 1.100 were well above what they did at other positions, but it is also where the Dodgers were able to concetrate most of their talent.

Consequently, this is one of the few positions where the Dodgers have absolutely no questions heading into 2006. If Bradley stays, he's a very good option to play center, if he goes, Drew would be even better. The Dodgers plans are set well into the future in center field, which is far more than I can say about any other position.

Right Field
Name	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HBP	K	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.D. Drew	158	27	41	22	30	3	32	9	0	7	.259	.387	.449	.837
Jose Cruz Jr	153	23	47	22	23	0	43	14	2	6	.307	.398	.542	.940
Jayson Werth	132	14	30	12	16	1	41	9	0	2	.227	.315	.341	.656
Jason Repko	83	16	19	9	7	2	20	5	0	4	.229	.304	.434	.738
Ricky Ledee	30	5	10	10	3	0	6	2	0	3	.333	.394	.700	1.094
Cody Ross	20	1	4	1	1	0	7	1	0	0	.200	.238	.250	.488
Jason Grabowski	10	3	2	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	.200	.333	.200	.533
Mike Edwards	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500
Total	590	89	154	76	82	6	150	40	2	22	.261	.357	.447	.804

League Average: .270/.339/.454/.793

Another revolving door brought back to respectability by a late season acquisition. Drew had gone through two massive slumps during the year, both at right field, hurting his numbers here. Cruz, on the other hand, was an out and out stud for the Dodgers here, far exceeding anyones expectations (can you imagine how well the rest of the season would have gone with Repko instead of Cruz?) The rest of right field was a mis-mash of limited play time and mediocrity, Ledee did very well with limited at bats, while Ross, Grabowski, and Edwards did about what was expected of them.

Next year, right field is either well spoken for, or a complete question mark. First off, in the unlikely scenario that Bradley comes back, J.D. Drew will hold down the fort in right field. Otherwise, there will be issues.

It looks like there is a good chance that Jose Cruz will come back, unless his time with the Dodgers impressed so much that arbitrators decided he was worth far more than he should be paid. Even if this occured, I doubt any team would want to send the Dodgers a high draft pick for him. The odds of having Cruz at one of the corner outfield slots next year is very high, and while I certainly don't expect him to put up these numbers, he is far better than any alternative we have.

Catcher
Name	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HBP	K	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jason Phillips	317	30	76	43	24	3	40	18	0	7	.240	.299	.363	.662
Dionner Navarro	176	21	48	14	20	2	21	9	0	3	.273	.354	.375	.729
Mike Rose	41	2	8	1	3	0	6	2	0	1	.195	.250	.317	.567
Paul Bako	40	1	10	4	7	0	12	2	0	0	.250	.362	.300	.662
Total	574	54	142	62	54	5	79	31	0	11	.247	.318	.359	.676

League Average: .254/.314/.390/.704

And so we have Mr. Phillips. Compared with the league average catcher, he certainly isn't that bad, though the fact that he got worse and worse as the season wore on certainly isn't a good thing. At the beginning of the season, I liked Phillips. A lot. Then, he got placed at first base, and that quickly changed my opinion of him. With the departure of Tracy, I still think that he could be a productive member of the team, serving roles as backup catcher and third string first baseman. Unlike Bako, Phillips has some upside, so I'm all for keeping him around.

As for the rest of the catchers, Dionner Navarro cam up and proved that he was a stud, giving me no qualms about handing him the backup catcher job. If he manages to develop some power, look out Russel Martin. Seeing Navarro perform well at this level was one of the few highlights of the season.

Oh, and we had two other largely mediocre backup catchers. Eh.

Pinch Hitter
Name	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	HBP	K	2B	3B	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Hee Seop Choi	42	5	8	3	3	2	17	2	0	1	.190	.277	.310	.586
Ricky Ledee	37	8	12	12	8	1	9	1	0	2	.324	.457	.514	.970
Olmedo Saenz	29	2	6	7	4	0	7	1	0	1	.207	.303	.345	.648
Jason Grabowski	27	3	4	3	4	0	10	0	0	1	.148	.258	.259	.517
Oscar Robles	23	3	11	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	.478	.520	.565	1.085
Antonio Perez	23	0	4	2	4	0	11	0	0	0	.174	.296	.174	.470
Mike Edwards	18	1	6	4	1	1	4	2	0	0	.333	.400	.444	.844
Jason Phillips	16	2	4	3	0	0	2	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500
Jason Repko	12	1	2	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	.167	.231	.167	.397
Jose Valentin	11	2	2	2	2	0	4	0	0	1	.182	.308	.455	.762
Brian Myrow	11	1	3	0	3	0	4	1	0	0	.273	.429	.364	.792
Norihiro Nakamura	8	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Cody Ross	5	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Chin Feng Chen	4	0	1	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	.250	.250	.250	.500
Jose Cruz Jr	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Mike Rose	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500	1.000
Jayson Werth	2	1	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	.500	.500	1.000	1.500
Willy Aybar	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Milton Bradley	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.500	.000	.500
Jeff Kent	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jeff Weaver	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000
Total	278	29	65	41	32	5	87	10	0	6	.234	.324	.335	.658

League Average: .232/.314/.411/.725

Finally, we have the best bench ever, containg four of the top six players on the team in OPS. So, why was it basically average? Because all of those players, save Ledee, are very, very bad at pinch hitting. Saenz, quite bad. Choi? Somehow worse. Perez? He slugged a mighty .170. So much for putting players in a position to succeed.

Despite this, the far worse players on the bench stepped it up. Robles and Edwards were amazing off the bench this year, and Ledee staked his claim as a good player simply by his pinch hitting work.

Of course, Grabowski got a disturbing number of pinch hit appearances.

And so we have the offense of the 2005 Dodgers. With a couple of exceptions, it left us with question marks and nothing else. With a sane manager at the helm, we might finally be able to figure out if Antonio Perez and Hee Seop Choi can play. It was supposed to happen this year, but, really, what's one season?

Ding Dong The Witch Is Dead

2005-10-03T19:49:00.000-07:00

Which old witch?

The wicked witch.

Preparing for further assults on DePodesta's credibility tomorrow.

Since the Dodgers are now in need of a new manager, I suggest asking them the following questions:

1. Is there ever any time when you should have the best player on the team, who has a .400+ OBP, bunt?

2. If your pitcher has allowed seven runs, and is coming up with the bases loaded and the game in reach, should you let him hit?

3. Is Jason Phillips a good first baseman?

Anyone who can answer these three questions correctly will be a dramatic improvement.

Derek Jeter: Mensa Member

2005-10-02T11:59:00.000-07:00

Jayson Stark, who ironically writes a column that is based entirely on minute numbers, sees the current AL playoff situation and has a hernia of the brain.

But, through the fog, who can see the clarity of the situation, no one but Derek Jeter, or perhaps rocket scientists.

This really wasn't that hard, the Yankees had a two game lead over the wild card leader with one game left, therefore they at least clinched a playoff spot. Ergo, when you win, you should celebrate. Unless you hate math, you should be happy that you made a playoff spot.

Then again, the average baseball player simply isn't that bright.

Tracy To DePodesta: "Please Fire Me"

2005-09-29T21:25:00.000-07:00

Dodger Notes:

-----
After an extended discussion, Tracy singled out missing "components" in the clubhouse -- assumedly the departures of Adrian Beltre, Steve Finley, Alex Cora, Shawn Green et al. -- and injuries as the prime reasons for the Dodgers' falloff from last year's 93-win campaign.
-----

If I went up to my boss, and told him that the reason we had underperfomed this year was because he was a complete moron, my butt would be fired in less time than it would take me to type the period at the end of this sentence.

I have no clue what Tracy is trying to accomplish here. First he asks for a big contract extension, then immediately makes these comments. He has to be trying to get fired, it's the only logical explanation.

I am absolutely fine with him going this route.

Stoneman For President

2005-09-29T09:58:00.000-07:00

This man is clearly a genius:

He spends 50 million dollars in the offseason, and comes out with a team that is almost as good as last years.

He signed a 40 year old to a two year, 15 million dollar contract. To replace a man who almost single handedly (well, double handedly) carried the team to the playoffs last year, simply because he couldn't handle chemistry issues.

He signed a shortstop with a sub .700 OPS to a 32 million dollar contract.

He handed a corner outfielder a 48 million dollars, despite the fact he has not performed well since his injury.

He let two of the best young relievers in the game walk for nothing.

He saw a team full of holes in the middle of August, and added a bad reliever, simply because he was left handed.

Despite all of this, he was able to defeat a team with half the payroll that was in its rebuilding year.

Bravo.

Do you want to know how he did it? It certainly wasn't through his shrewd offseason moves. It was Bartolo Colon becoming the Cy Young, John Lackey improving his K/9 by three, and Jarrod Washburn pitching far better than his mediocre self. There we go. Without this massive increase in pitching, the Angels go nowhere.

As for the "media criticism" that Mike DiGiovanna mentioned, I certainly haven't seen it. While the L.A. Times was calling J.D. Drew and Derek Lowe "disasters", there was never once a mention of how horrid Orlando Cabrera is, or how he traded Jose Guillen for the bad Izturis and a guy that Scioscia doesn't use, presumably because he has brain damage.

Pop the cork, Bill. If there is any justice in the world, it'll be the last time you do that in a long time.

In other news

You punch like Jim Abbott.

Monkeys like Darin Erstad.

Personal Horn Tooting

2005-09-28T11:21:00.000-07:00

Despite my recent sporadic updates and questionable grammar, Deadspin has named DFP the third best Dodger blog on the web.

I am eternally grateful for the support.

Fire Larry Beinfest

2005-09-28T09:35:00.000-07:00

The Marlins clearly have clubhouse issues. First, A.J. Burnett was ejected from the team, and, in the most extreme example of cutting off your nose to spite your face, they chose to sit Miguel Cabrera with the season on the line, and now have issues with his work ethic.

Clearly, the onus here falls on Marlin's G.M. Larry Beinfest. In his stone cold drive to win a championship, allowing fan favorite Carl Pavano to slip away to free agency, while also trading the beloved Brad Penny and Hee Seop Choi to Los Angeles, he forgot about the little things you need to make a team run.

By trading away the team's heart and soul for a mediocre relief pitcher, a disgruntled outfielder, and a catcher who falls apart in September, Beinfest destroyed the great chemistry that this team had in 2003. While Jack McKeon was able to keep the ship upright from the chaos Benifest created, leading the Marlins to a 31-27 record after the trade, he was simply not able to make the post season with the holes in the roster left by Penny and Choi.

Beinfest could have fixed the holes in the chemistry in the offseason, but he simply made them worse. He resigned Paul LoDuca (who has only driven in 57 runs this year), and, in his worse move yet, signed a known clubhouse cancer, Carlos Delgado, to play first base. Who did he displace in order to make this signing, only a man named Jeff Conine. That's right, Mr. Marlin lost his starting job to a man who would only make the volitile clubhouse even worse.

When I look at teams like the Red Sox, the Yankees, and the Braves, what do I see? Good chemistry. That is the trait that all good teams share. Now, like the Royals, Rockies, and Pirates, the Marlins simply have bad chemistry.

Beinfest needs to realize that you can not trade away the heart and soul of a team, and still expect them to win. I saw this coming the second Penny and Choi left the team (who, by the way, maintain a great relationship in Los Angeles), and this meltdown was simply the culmination of that trade. I know you can't play fantasy baseball with a real team, Larry, why don't you?

Express Written Consent

2005-09-27T16:06:00.000-07:00

Everyone is well aware the reproduction or retransmission of this broadcast, without the express written consent of Major League Baseball, is strictly prohibited.

For what is likely the first time ever, one man tries to gain that consent.

This Is Why I Hate College Football

2005-09-27T11:42:00.000-07:00

After the Associated Press decided that they didn't want the college football standings decided by "some damn computer" (sound familiar), they were replaced by the Harris Poll, a poll consisting of 114 former players, coaches, administrators, and media members.

In the newest Harris Poll, a 2-2 team that lost 61-14 was given 13 votes. This is why I can't see any sports decided by a poll as a legitament competition. What if John Kruk and Joe Morgan, instead of just harmlessly spewing off nonsense, actually got to decide what the standings were? Why should we hope that Terry Bradshaw would be any better?

Is Jayson Werth It?*

2005-09-27T09:58:00.000-07:00

Well, this was a depressing week, leaving me with absolutely no desire to write. The A's collapse was made final, the White Sox won enough games to pretty much secure their playoff spot, and the Dodgers decided that Brian Myrow was more important to Choi. Now that everything has gone wrong, I can look ahead to 2006.

Coming into the season, Jayson Werth was a huge part of the Dodgers offensive plan. In retrospect, these predictions might seem silly, but these were my home run predictions for the team this year.

Izturis – 2
Choi (if he played) - 25
Drew – 30
Kent – 30
Bradley – 20
Werth – 25
Valentin/Perez platoon – 25
Phillips – 15

In retrospect, these look fairly silly. (The 41 home runs we lost from Werth and Valentin certainly didn't help this year, did they?) Much to the chagrin of my wallet, I had so much faith in Werth coming into the season that I put money on him hitting 30 home runs this year, simply to prove a point. The future looked good in left in March, where Werth could cheaply hold down the fort for the next four years.

What a difference a season makes.

Looking ahead to 2006, the Dodger's outfield looks barren. There's probably a 95 percent chance that Milton Bradley will not return, leaving the Dodgers searching for two outfielders to surround J.D. Drew. For the most part, people have discounted Werth as a viable option in left, saying he's a nice fourth outfielder, but little more. Sadly, our options coming into the season are limited.

In the organization
Jason Repko
Ricky Ledee

Via Free Agency
Johnny Damon (not going to happen)
Hideki Matsui (really good chance it's not going to happen)
Brian Giles (Will be 35 and get a very large contract)

That leaves acquiring an outfielder via trade. While this could mean getting anyone, the two popular opinions seem to be Brad Wilkerson and Adam Dunn.

A couple days ago, I was fully on the Wilkerson bandwagon. He's put up good numbers his entire career, his bad year this year, attributable to moving to RFK and having a bad elbow, should lower his trade value, and Jim Bowden isn't very good at his job. Put all these things together, and the Dodgers could get a player with 30 home run power, a high OBP, and the ability to play all three outfield positions for well below market value.

Suddenly, a thought came to me, what does Wilkerson give you that Werth doesn't? Despite his extreme lack of power, Werth has had one positive aspect to his season: a massive increase in patience. In 2004, Werth had an isolated patience of .076, this year, it has shot up to .108. Oscar Robles has been lauded for his ability to take a good at bat, yet he has an isolated patience of only .062. With the exception of J.D. Drew, Werth has been, by far, the Dodgers most patient hitter this year. This is especially impressive when you consider that he simply is not a power threat this year.

With this surge in on base percentage, Werth's season has been pretty much comparable to Wilkerson's.

Werth: .241/.349/.383
Wilkerson: .250/.353/.408

As far as less important things go, Werth is a far better base runner than Wilkerson, stealing 11 out of 13 this year as compared to Wilkerson's seven out of 17. Werth has also been a far better fielder than Wilkerson this year, putting up rate2s of 103/110/110 in left, center, and right respectively. Wilkerson had a rate2 of 100/98/101.

This year, Werth has been just as valuable as Wilkerson has been, if not more so. Of course, this year, that's nothing to write home about. A better question is, can Werth put up the numbers that we would expect Wilkerson to? I believe he can.

Not only did Werth break his wrist in the first game of Spring Training, but he also had a partially torn elbow ligament at the end of last season. I would like to find a history on people coming back after broken wrists, but they usually seem to end seasons, so there's not much data. Anecdotal evidence suggests there is clearly something wrong with Werth. For example, on Saturday night, Werth simply smoked a ball. Last year that probably would have been an easy home run, this year, he flied out a few feet before the track. Anecdotally, the ball just isn't carrying off the bat as far. I know that this isn't the best case, but, with all the arm troubles Werth has had, it is far too soon to simply give up on him.

Werth can potentially provide so much to this team, that it is far too soon to give up on him. With 2006 not looking like a championship year, I see no real harm in letting Werth see what he can do if he doesn't have a catasrophic offseason.

*I'm sorry. I couldn't resist.

Attaboy Carl

2005-09-20T19:20:00.000-07:00

Thanks to the Magic of MLB.TV, I can watch the Indians-White Sox game live over the Internet. Sadly this means that I get subjected to Hawk Harrelson. Now, I know that he's a blatant homer, but this is extreme even for him.

In response to Carl Everret stepping out of the box:

"Attaboy Carl"

Attaboy, you stepped out of the box? Really, I don't see how anyone can honestly be proud of the fact that his hitter backed out of the batters box. What else is coming?

"Way to go to that Rosin Bag Cliff"

"Quality loogie there Paulie."

Back To Reality

2005-09-20T13:54:00.000-07:00

Riding high after the Indians win last night, South Side Sox points out that the White Sox real magic number is not 11, but eight, thanks to the wild card, along with other factors.

I hate to say this, but, let's go Yankees.

Six Pack

2005-09-19T15:31:00.000-07:00

One of the most important series of the entire year begins in an hour and a half as the Indians take on the White Sox. Sitting a mere three games back, the surging Indians are a mere 3 1/2 games back of the White Sox. A sweep here, combined with solid play by the Yankees the rest of the way could make the impossible dream come true: Ozzie Guillen watching the playoffs on T.V.

If this occurs, I will send Mark Shapiro a six pack of whatever he wants.